IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2601.22168.html

Stablecoin Design with Adversarial-Robust Multi-Agent Systems via Trust-Weighted Signal Aggregation

Author

Listed:
  • Shengwei You
  • Aditya Joshi
  • Andrey Kuehlkamp
  • Jarek Nabrzyski

Abstract

Algorithmic stablecoins promise decentralized monetary stability by maintaining a target peg through programmatic reserve management. Yet, their reserve controllers remain vulnerable to regime-blind optimization, calibrating risk parameters on fair-weather data while ignoring tail events that precipitate cascading failures. The March 2020 Black Thursday collapse, wherein MakerDAO's collateral auctions yielded $8.3M in losses and a 15% peg deviation, exposed a critical gap: existing models like SAS systematically omit extreme volatility regimes from covariance estimates, producing allocations optimal in expectation but catastrophic under adversarial stress. We present MVF-Composer, a trust-weighted Mean-Variance Frontier reserve controller incorporating a novel Stress Harness for risk-state estimation. Our key insight is deploying multi-agent simulations as adversarial stress-testers: heterogeneous agents (traders, liquidity providers, attackers) execute protocol actions under crisis scenarios, exposing reserve vulnerabilities before they manifest on-chain. We formalize a trust-scoring mechanism T: A -> [0,1] that down-weights signals from agents exhibiting manipulative behavior, ensuring the risk-state estimator remains robust to signal injection and Sybil attacks. Across 1,200 randomized scenarios with injected Black-Swan shocks (10% collateral drawdown, 50% sentiment collapse, coordinated redemption attacks), MVF-Composer reduces peak peg deviation by 57% and mean recovery time by 3.1x relative to SAS baselines. Ablation studies confirm the trust layer accounts for 23% of stability gains under adversarial conditions, achieving 72% adversarial agent detection. Our system runs on commodity hardware, requires no on-chain oracles beyond standard price feeds, and provides a reproducible framework for stress-testing DeFi reserve policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengwei You & Aditya Joshi & Andrey Kuehlkamp & Jarek Nabrzyski, 2026. "Stablecoin Design with Adversarial-Robust Multi-Agent Systems via Trust-Weighted Signal Aggregation," Papers 2601.22168, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.22168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.22168
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lioba Heimbach & Eric Schertenleib & Roger Wattenhofer, 2022. "Exploring Price Accuracy on Uniswap V3 in Times of Distress," Papers 2208.09642, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    3. Ariah Klages-Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2020. "While Stability Lasts: A Stochastic Model of Non-Custodial Stablecoins," Papers 2004.01304, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Pedro Braga & Georgios Chionas & Piotr Krysta & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras & Carmine Ventre, 2024. "MEV Sharing with Dynamic Extraction Rates," Papers 2402.15849, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Ariah Klages‐Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2022. "While stability lasts: A stochastic model of noncustodial stablecoins," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 943-981, October.
    6. Md Monjurul Karim & Dong Hoang Van & Sangeen Khan & Qiang Qu & Yaroslav Kholodov, 2025. "AI Agents Meet Blockchain: A Survey on Secure and Scalable Collaboration for Multi-Agents," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-30, February.
    7. Grobys, Klaus & Junttila, Juha-Pekka & Kolari, James W., 2025. "A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Natkamon Tovanich & Myriam Kassoul & Simon Weidenholzer & Julien Prat, 2023. "Contagion in Decentralized Lending Protocols: A Case Study of Compound," Post-Print hal-04221228, HAL.
    9. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John L. Campbell & Hsinchun Chen & Dan S. Dhaliwal & Hsin-min Lu & Logan B. Steele, 2014. "The information content of mandatory risk factor disclosures in corporate filings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 396-455, March.
    2. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Reed, Adam V. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C., 2012. "How are shorts informed?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 260-278.
    3. Philippe Bergault & Louis Bertucci & David Bouba & Olivier Gu'eant & Julien Guilbert, 2024. "Automated Market Making: the case of Pegged Assets," Papers 2411.08145, arXiv.org.
    4. Andrey Urusov & Rostislav Berezovskiy & Yury Yanovich, 2024. "Backtesting Framework for Concentrated Liquidity Market Makers on Uniswap V3 Decentralized Exchange," Papers 2410.09983, arXiv.org.
    5. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    6. Van Ness, Bonnie & Van Ness, Robert & Yildiz, Serhat, 2021. "Private information in trades, R2, and large stock price movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Matthias Hafner & Marco Henriques Pereira & Helmut Dietl & Juan Beccuti, 2023. "The four types of stablecoins: A comparative analysis," Papers 2308.07041, arXiv.org.
    8. Massa, Massimo & chuprinin, oleg & Gaspar, Sérgio, 2016. "Adjusting to The Information Environment: News Tangibility and Mutual Fund Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Donald B. Keim & Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2018. "First to \"Read\" the News: New Analytics and Algorithmic Trading," International Finance Discussion Papers 1233, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Oleg Chuprinin & Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2015. "Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1149, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Sandeep Neela, 2026. "An Explainable Market Integrity Monitoring System with Multi-Source Attention Signals and Transparent Scoring," Papers 2601.15304, arXiv.org.
    12. Lin, Chu-Bin & Chou, Robin K. & Wang, George H.K., 2018. "Investor sentiment and price discovery: Evidence from the pricing dynamics between the futures and spot markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-31.
    13. Wilkoff, Sean & Yildiz, Serhat, 2023. "The behavior and determinants of illiquidity in the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Du, Yao & Linh, Tran Thi Thuy & Lu, Chien-Lin & Nguyen, Hong Thoa, 2024. "Reaching the public with Twitter: The reputation value of CEOs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Akey, Pat & Grégoire, Vincent & Martineau, Charles, 2022. "Price revelation from insider trading: Evidence from hacked earnings news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1162-1184.
    16. Zhang, Xiaodi, 2025. "The price evolution in financial markets under influence of published opinions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Massa, Massimo & von Beschwitz, Bastian & Keim, Donald B, 2015. "First to ?Read? the News: News Analytics and Institutional Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 10534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ariah Klages-Mundt & Steffen Schuldenzucker, 2022. "Designing Autonomous Markets for Stablecoin Monetary Policy," Papers 2212.12398, arXiv.org.
    19. Oleg Chuprinin & Sérgio Gaspar & Massimo Massa, 2019. "Adjusting to the Information Environment: News Tangibility and Mutual Fund Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1430-1453, March.
    20. Kathleen Weiss Hanley & Gerard Hoberg, 2019. "Dynamic Interpretation of Emerging Risks in the Financial Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(12), pages 4543-4603.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.22168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.