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History Is Not Enough: An Adaptive Dataflow System for Financial Time-Series Synthesis

Author

Listed:
  • Haochong Xia
  • Yao Long Teng
  • Regan Tan
  • Molei Qin
  • Xinrun Wang
  • Bo An

Abstract

In quantitative finance, the gap between training and real-world performance-driven by concept drift and distributional non-stationarity-remains a critical obstacle for building reliable data-driven systems. Models trained on static historical data often overfit, resulting in poor generalization in dynamic markets. The mantra "History Is Not Enough" underscores the need for adaptive data generation that learns to evolve with the market rather than relying solely on past observations. We present a drift-aware dataflow system that integrates machine learning-based adaptive control into the data curation process. The system couples a parameterized data manipulation module comprising single-stock transformations, multi-stock mix-ups, and curation operations, with an adaptive planner-scheduler that employs gradient-based bi-level optimization to control the system. This design unifies data augmentation, curriculum learning, and data workflow management under a single differentiable framework, enabling provenance-aware replay and continuous data quality monitoring. Extensive experiments on forecasting and reinforcement learning trading tasks demonstrate that our framework enhances model robustness and improves risk-adjusted returns. The system provides a generalizable approach to adaptive data management and learning-guided workflow automation for financial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Haochong Xia & Yao Long Teng & Regan Tan & Molei Qin & Xinrun Wang & Bo An, 2026. "History Is Not Enough: An Adaptive Dataflow System for Financial Time-Series Synthesis," Papers 2601.10143, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.10143
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haochong Xia & Shuo Sun & Xinrun Wang & Bo An, 2023. "Market-GAN: Adding Control to Financial Market Data Generation with Semantic Context," Papers 2309.07708, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Wendi Li & Xiao Yang & Weiqing Liu & Yingce Xia & Jiang Bian, 2022. "DDG-DA: Data Distribution Generation for Predictable Concept Drift Adaptation," Papers 2201.04038, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    3. Tej Bahadur Shahi & Ashish Shrestha & Arjun Neupane & William Guo, 2020. "Stock Price Forecasting with Deep Learning: A Comparative Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Volodymyr Mnih & Koray Kavukcuoglu & David Silver & Andrei A. Rusu & Joel Veness & Marc G. Bellemare & Alex Graves & Martin Riedmiller & Andreas K. Fidjeland & Georg Ostrovski & Stig Petersen & Charle, 2015. "Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning," Nature, Nature, vol. 518(7540), pages 529-533, February.
    5. Zijian Shi & John Cartlidge, 2023. "Neural Stochastic Agent-Based Limit Order Book Simulation: A Hybrid Methodology," Papers 2303.00080, arXiv.org.
    6. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2007. "Agent-based Models of Financial Markets," Papers physics/0701140, arXiv.org.
    7. Chuqiao Zong & Chaojie Wang & Molei Qin & Lei Feng & Xinrun Wang & Bo An, 2024. "MacroHFT: Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement Learning On High Frequency Trading," Papers 2406.14537, arXiv.org.
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