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Impact of power outages on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic in a changing climate

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  • Jiashu Zhu
  • Wenbin Zhou
  • Laura Diaz Anadon
  • Shixiang Zhu

Abstract

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are a cornerstone of residential decarbonization and energy resilience. However, most existing systems are PV-only and cannot provide backup power during grid failures. Here, we present a high-resolution analysis of 377,726 households in Indianapolis, US, quantifying how power outages influence the installation of PV-only systems between 2014 and 2023. Using a two-part econometric panel model, we estimate the causal effect of power outage exposure and project future risks under a middle of the road climate scenario (RCP 4.5). We find that each additional hour of annual outage duration per household lowers the new-installation rate by 0.012 percentage points per year, equivalent to a 31% decline relative to the historical mean (2014-2023). With outage duration and frequency projected to double by 2040, these results reveal a potential vicious cycle between grid unreliability and slower decarbonization, calling for policies that integrate grid resilience and clean-energy goals.

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  • Jiashu Zhu & Wenbin Zhou & Laura Diaz Anadon & Shixiang Zhu, 2025. "Impact of power outages on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic in a changing climate," Papers 2512.05027, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.05027
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