IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2507.14160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

FinSurvival: A Suite of Large Scale Survival Modeling Tasks from Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Green
  • Zihan Nie
  • Hanzhen Qin
  • Oshani Seneviratne
  • Kristin P. Bennett

Abstract

Survival modeling predicts the time until an event occurs and is widely used in risk analysis; for example, it's used in medicine to predict the survival of a patient based on censored data. There is a need for large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking artificial intelligence (AI) survival models. In this paper, we derive a suite of 16 survival modeling tasks from publicly available transaction data generated by lending of cryptocurrencies in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Each task was constructed using an automated pipeline based on choices of index and outcome events. For example, the model predicts the time from when a user borrows cryptocurrency coins (index event) until their first repayment (outcome event). We formulate a survival benchmark consisting of a suite of 16 survival-time prediction tasks (FinSurvival). We also automatically create 16 corresponding classification problems for each task by thresholding the survival time using the restricted mean survival time. With over 7.5 million records, FinSurvival provides a suite of realistic financial modeling tasks that will spur future AI survival modeling research. Our evaluation indicated that these are challenging tasks that are not well addressed by existing methods. FinSurvival enables the evaluation of AI survival models applicable to traditional finance, industry, medicine, and commerce, which is currently hindered by the lack of large public datasets. Our benchmark demonstrates how AI models could assess opportunities and risks in DeFi. In the future, the FinSurvival benchmark pipeline can be used to create new benchmarks by incorporating more DeFi transactions and protocols as the use of cryptocurrency grows.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Green & Zihan Nie & Hanzhen Qin & Oshani Seneviratne & Kristin P. Bennett, 2025. "FinSurvival: A Suite of Large Scale Survival Modeling Tasks from Finance," Papers 2507.14160, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.14160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.14160
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    2. Christina Curtis & Sohrab P. Shah & Suet-Feung Chin & Gulisa Turashvili & Oscar M. Rueda & Mark J. Dunning & Doug Speed & Andy G. Lynch & Shamith Samarajiwa & Yinyin Yuan & Stefan Gräf & Gavin Ha & Gh, 2012. "The genomic and transcriptomic architecture of 2,000 breast tumours reveals novel subgroups," Nature, Nature, vol. 486(7403), pages 346-352, June.
    3. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    4. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    5. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    2. Mkhadri, Abdallah & Ouhourane, Mohamed, 2013. "An extended variable inclusion and shrinkage algorithm for correlated variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 631-644.
    3. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2018. "Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(4), pages 597-623, September.
    4. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    5. Christopher J Greenwood & George J Youssef & Primrose Letcher & Jacqui A Macdonald & Lauryn J Hagg & Ann Sanson & Jenn Mcintosh & Delyse M Hutchinson & John W Toumbourou & Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz &, 2020. "A comparison of penalised regression methods for informing the selection of predictive markers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Niccolò Gentile & Michela Bia & Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Alexandre Tkatchenko, 2025. "What Makes a Satisfying Life? Prediction and Interpretation with Machine‐Learning Algorithms," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 71(2), May.
    7. Immanuel Bayer & Philip Groth & Sebastian Schneckener, 2013. "Prediction Errors in Learning Drug Response from Gene Expression Data – Influence of Labeling, Sample Size, and Machine Learning Algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    8. Mostafa Rezaei & Ivor Cribben & Michele Samorani, 2021. "A clustering-based feature selection method for automatically generated relational attributes," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 233-263, August.
    9. Gustavo A. Alonso-Silverio & Víctor Francisco-García & Iris P. Guzmán-Guzmán & Elías Ventura-Molina & Antonio Alarcón-Paredes, 2021. "Toward Non-Invasive Estimation of Blood Glucose Concentration: A Comparative Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    11. Karim Barigou & Stéphane Loisel & Yahia Salhi, 2020. "Parsimonious Predictive Mortality Modeling by Regularization and Cross-Validation with and without Covid-Type Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Gurgul Henryk & Machno Artur, 2017. "Trade Pattern on Warsaw Stock Exchange and Prediction of Number of Trades," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 18(1), pages 91-114, March.
    13. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    14. Heinisch, Katja & Scaramella, Fabio & Schult, Christoph, 2025. "Assumption errors and forecast accuracy: A partial linear instrumental variable and double machine learning approach," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    16. Zichen Zhang & Ye Eun Bae & Jonathan R. Bradley & Lang Wu & Chong Wu, 2022. "SUMMIT: An integrative approach for better transcriptomic data imputation improves causal gene identification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Štefan Lyócsa & Petra Vašaničová & Branka Hadji Misheva & Marko Dávid Vateha, 2022. "Default or profit scoring credit systems? Evidence from European and US peer-to-peer lending markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Peter Bühlmann & Jacopo Mandozzi, 2014. "High-dimensional variable screening and bias in subsequent inference, with an empirical comparison," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 407-430, June.
    19. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-20, April.
    20. Capanu, Marinela & Giurcanu, Mihai & Begg, Colin B. & Gönen, Mithat, 2023. "Subsampling based variable selection for generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.14160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.