IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2501.06404.html

A Hybrid Framework for Reinsurance Optimization: Integrating Generative Models and Reinforcement Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Stella C. Dong

Abstract

Reinsurance optimization is a cornerstone of solvency and capital management, yet traditional approaches often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions and static program designs. We propose a hybrid framework that combines Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to learn joint distributions of multi-line and multi-year claims data with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning to adapt treaty parameters dynamically. The framework explicitly targets expected surplus under capital and ruin-probability constraints, bridging statistical modeling with sequential decision-making. Using simulated and stress-test scenarios, including pandemic-type and catastrophe-type shocks, we show that the hybrid method produces more resilient outcomes than classical proportional and stop-loss benchmarks, delivering higher surpluses and lower tail risk. Our findings highlight the usefulness of generative models for capturing cross-line dependencies and demonstrate the feasibility of RL-based dynamic structuring in practical reinsurance settings. Contributions include (i) clarifying optimization goals in reinsurance RL, (ii) defending generative modeling relative to parametric fits, and (iii) benchmarking against established methods. This work illustrates how hybrid AI techniques can address modern challenges of portfolio diversification, catastrophe risk, and adaptive capital allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stella C. Dong, 2025. "A Hybrid Framework for Reinsurance Optimization: Integrating Generative Models and Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2501.06404, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.06404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.06404
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jin, Zhuo & Yang, Hailiang & Yin, G., 2021. "A hybrid deep learning method for optimal insurance strategies: Algorithms and convergence analysis," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 262-275.
    2. Wang, Shaun S., 2002. "A Universal Framework for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 213-234, November.
    3. Rob Kaas & Marc Goovaerts & Jan Dhaene & Michel Denuit, 2008. "Modern Actuarial Risk Theory," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-540-70998-5, December.
    4. Cheng, Xiang & Jin, Zhuo & Yang, Hailiang, 2020. "Optimal Insurance Strategies: A Hybrid Deep Learning Markov Chain Approximation Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 449-477, May.
    5. David Silver & Aja Huang & Chris J. Maddison & Arthur Guez & Laurent Sifre & George van den Driessche & Julian Schrittwieser & Ioannis Antonoglou & Veda Panneershelvam & Marc Lanctot & Sander Dieleman, 2016. "Mastering the game of Go with deep neural networks and tree search," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7587), pages 484-489, January.
    6. Dufresne, Francois & Gerber, Hans U., 1991. "Risk theory for the compound Poisson process that is perturbed by diffusion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 51-59, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aleksandar Arandjelovi'c & Julia Eisenberg, 2024. "Optimal risk mitigation by deep reinsurance," Papers 2408.06168, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    2. Pelsser, Antoon & Salahnejhad Ghalehjooghi, Ahmad, 2016. "Time-consistent actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 97-112.
    3. Qiu, Ming & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2023. "Optimal risk sharing and dividend strategies under default contagion: A semi-analytical approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-23.
    4. Zhi Chen & Melvyn Sim & Huan Xu, 2019. "Distributionally Robust Optimization with Infinitely Constrained Ambiguity Sets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 1328-1344, September.
    5. Tian Zhu & Merry H. Ma, 2022. "Deriving the Optimal Strategy for the Two Dice Pig Game via Reinforcement Learning," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Xiaoyue Li & John M. Mulvey, 2023. "Optimal Portfolio Execution in a Regime-switching Market with Non-linear Impact Costs: Combining Dynamic Program and Neural Network," Papers 2306.08809, arXiv.org.
    7. Franck Adékambi & Essodina Takouda, 2020. "Gerber–Shiu Function in a Class of Delayed and Perturbed Risk Model with Dependence," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Pedro Afonso Fernandes, 2024. "Forecasting with Neuro-Dynamic Programming," Papers 2404.03737, arXiv.org.
    9. Kume, Alfred & Hashorva, Enkelejd, 2012. "Calculation of Bayes premium for conditional elliptical risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 632-635.
    10. Furman, Edward & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2010. "Multivariate Tweedie distributions and some related capital-at-risk analyses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 351-361, April.
    11. Nathan Companez & Aldeida Aleti, 2016. "Can Monte-Carlo Tree Search learn to sacrifice?," Journal of Heuristics, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 783-813, December.
    12. Yuchen Zhang & Wei Yang, 2022. "Breakthrough invention and problem complexity: Evidence from a quasi‐experiment," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 2510-2544, December.
    13. Zhang, Aili & Li, Shuanming & Wang, Wenyuan, 2023. "A scale function based approach for solving integral-differential equations in insurance risk models," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 450(C).
    14. Benjamin Heinbach & Peter Burggräf & Johannes Wagner, 2024. "gym-flp: A Python Package for Training Reinforcement Learning Algorithms on Facility Layout Problems," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, March.
    15. Yassine Chemingui & Adel Gastli & Omar Ellabban, 2020. "Reinforcement Learning-Based School Energy Management System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Zhou, Tao & Zhou, Han & Li, Ming-Gen & Yan, Shiwei, 2025. "A neural network method for the escape rate in metastable systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 674(C).
    17. Deprez, Laurens & Antonio, Katrien & Boute, Robert, 2021. "Pricing service maintenance contracts using predictive analytics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 530-545.
    18. Zhewei Zhang & Youngjin Yoo & Kalle Lyytinen & Aron Lindberg, 2021. "The Unknowability of Autonomous Tools and the Liminal Experience of Their Use," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 1192-1213, December.
    19. Yuhong Wang & Lei Chen & Hong Zhou & Xu Zhou & Zongsheng Zheng & Qi Zeng & Li Jiang & Liang Lu, 2021. "Flexible Transmission Network Expansion Planning Based on DQN Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, April.
    20. JinHyo Joseph Yun & EuiSeob Jeong & Xiaofei Zhao & Sung Deuk Hahm & KyungHun Kim, 2019. "Collective Intelligence: An Emerging World in Open Innovation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-15, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.06404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.