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Identification of dynamic treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed

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  • Akanksha Negi
  • Didier Nibbering

Abstract

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories using a combination of outcome, propensity score, and missing treatment models. We show that this approach identifies the target parameter as long as \textit{any two} of the three models are correctly specified. The method delivers improved robustness against competing alternatives under the same set of identifying assumptions. Theoretical results and numerical experiments demonstrate how the proposed method yields more accurate inference compared to conventional and doubly robust estimators, particularly under nontrivial missingness and misspecification scenarios. Two applications demonstrate that the robust method can produce substantively different estimates of path-dependent treatment effects relative to conventional approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Akanksha Negi & Didier Nibbering, 2025. "Identification of dynamic treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed," Papers 2501.04853, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.04853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jason Abrevaya & Stephen G. Donald, 2017. "A GMM Approach for Dealing with Missing Data on Regressors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 657-662, July.
    4. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    5. Peisong Han, 2014. "Multiply Robust Estimation in Regression Analysis With Missing Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1159-1173, September.
    6. Linbo Wang & Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, 2018. "Bounded, efficient and multiply robust estimation of average treatment effects using instrumental variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(3), pages 531-550, June.
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