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Equity Premium in Efficient Markets

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  • B. N. Kausik

Abstract

Equity premium, the surplus returns of stocks over bonds, has been an enduring puzzle. While numerous prior works approach the problem assuming the utility of money is invariant across contexts, our approach implies that in efficient markets the utility of money is polymorphic, with risk aversion dependent on the information available in each context, i.e. the discount on each future cash flow depends on all information available on that cash flow. Specifically, we prove that in efficient markets, informed investors maximize return on volatility by being risk-neutral with riskless bonds, and risk-averse with equities, thereby resolving the puzzle. We validate our results on historical data with surprising consistency. JEL Classification: C58, G00, G12, G17

Suggested Citation

  • B. N. Kausik, 2024. "Equity Premium in Efficient Markets," Papers 2401.09265, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2401.09265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
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    7. Hildreth, Clifford & Knowles, Glenn J., 1982. "Some Estimates of Farmers' Utility Functions," Technical Bulletins 54545, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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