IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.10672.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems

Author

Listed:
  • Jorgen Vitting Andersen
  • Roy Cerqueti
  • Jessica Riccioni

Abstract

Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by applying it to systems which have components with heterogeneous failure times. Depending on the heterogeneous distributions of component failure, we find different measures to be optimal for predicting the failure time of the total system. We give examples of how, as a given system deteriorates over time, one can issue different optimal predictions of system failure by choosing among a set of time-dependent measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2021. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Papers 2112.10672, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.10672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.10672
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Azaron, Amir & Katagiri, Hideki & Sakawa, Masatoshi & Modarres, Mohammad, 2005. "Reliability function of a class of time-dependent systems with standby redundancy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 378-386, July.
    2. Jorge Navarro & Yolanda del Águila & Miguel A. Sordo & Alfonso Suárez‐Llorens, 2013. "Stochastic ordering properties for systems with dependent identically distributed components," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 264-278, May.
    3. Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2012. "On the mean residual life of a k-out-of-n:G system with a single cold standby component," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 273-277.
    4. Li, Wei & Zuo, Ming J., 2008. "Reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 160-167.
    5. Zhang, Yiying, 2018. "Optimal allocation of active redundancies in weighted k-out-of-n systems," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 110-117.
    6. Hubert Ooghe & Christophe Spaenjers, 2010. "A note on performance measures for business failure prediction models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 67-70, January.
    7. Navarro, Jorge & Ruiz, Jose M. & Sandoval, Carlos J., 2005. "A note on comparisons among coherent systems with dependent components using signatures," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 179-185, April.
    8. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Sovereign bond return prediction with realized higher moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-73.
    9. Parsa, Motahareh & Di Crescenzo, Antonio & Jabbari, Hadi, 2018. "Analysis of reliability systems via Gini-type index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 340-353.
    10. Navarro, Jorge & Pellerey, Franco & Di Crescenzo, Antonio, 2015. "Orderings of coherent systems with randomized dependent components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 127-139.
    11. Wang, Yong & Li, Lin & Huang, Shuhong & Chang, Qing, 2012. "Reliability and covariance estimation of weighted k-out-of-n multi-state systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 138-147.
    12. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2019. "Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1120-1131.
    13. Gupta, Nitin & Misra, Neeraj & Kumar, Somesh, 2015. "Stochastic comparisons of residual lifetimes and inactivity times of coherent systems with dependent identically distributed components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 425-430.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03634370, HAL.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Post-Print hal-03634370, HAL.
    3. Jorgen-Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 326(1), pages 295-316, July.
    4. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Giulia Rotundo, 2017. "Rational expectations and stochastic systems," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17060, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Oct 2019.
    5. Roy Cerqueti, 2022. "A new concept of reliability system and applications in finance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(1), pages 45-64, May.
    6. Zarezadeh, S. & Mohammadi, L. & Balakrishnan, N., 2018. "On the joint signature of several coherent systems with some shared components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 1092-1100.
    7. Zhang, Yiying, 2021. "Reliability Analysis of Randomly Weighted k-out-of-n Systems with Heterogeneous Components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Serkan Eryilmaz & Ali Riza Bozbulut, 2019. "Reliability analysis of weighted- k -out-of- n system consisting of three-state components," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(6), pages 972-977, December.
    9. Parsa, Motahareh & Di Crescenzo, Antonio & Jabbari, Hadi, 2018. "Analysis of reliability systems via Gini-type index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 340-353.
    10. Gupta, Nitin & Misra, Neeraj & Kumar, Somesh, 2015. "Stochastic comparisons of residual lifetimes and inactivity times of coherent systems with dependent identically distributed components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 425-430.
    11. Navarro, Jorge & Arriaza, Antonio & Suárez-Llorens, Alfonso, 2019. "Minimal repair of failed components in coherent systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 951-964.
    12. Serkan Eryilmaz & Kadir Sarikaya, 2014. "Modeling and analysis of weighted-k-out-of-n: G system consisting of two different types of components," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(3), pages 265-271, June.
    13. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2019. "Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1120-1131.
    14. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Ucum, Kaan Ayberk, 2021. "The lost capacity by the weighted k-out-of-n system upon system failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    15. Qi, Faqun & Yang, Huaqing & Wei, Lai & Shu, Xinting, 2024. "Preventive maintenance policy optimization for a weighted k-out-of-n: G system using the survival signature," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    16. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Devrim, Yilser, 2019. "Reliability and optimal replacement policy for a k-out-of-n system subject to shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 393-397.
    17. Yousefi, Nooshin & Coit, David W. & Song, Sanling, 2020. "Reliability analysis of systems considering clusters of dependent degrading components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Jorge Navarro, 2018. "Distribution-free comparisons of residual lifetimes of coherent systems based on copula properties," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 781-800, June.
    19. Xiaojun Liang & Yinghui Tang, 2019. "The improvement upon the reliability of the k-out-of-n:F system with the repair rates differentiation policy," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 479-500, June.
    20. Chen Li & Xiaohu Li, 2020. "Weak aging properties for coherent systems with statistically dependent component lifetimes," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(7), pages 559-572, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.10672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.