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Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface Generation with Variational Autoencoders

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  • Brian Ning
  • Sebastian Jaimungal
  • Xiaorong Zhang
  • Maxime Bergeron

Abstract

We propose a hybrid method for generating arbitrage-free implied volatility (IV) surfaces consistent with historical data by combining model-free Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with continuous time stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven models. We focus on two classes of SDE models: regime switching models and L\'evy additive processes. By projecting historical surfaces onto the space of SDE model parameters, we obtain a distribution on the parameter subspace faithful to the data on which we then train a VAE. Arbitrage-free IV surfaces are then generated by sampling from the posterior distribution on the latent space, decoding to obtain SDE model parameters, and finally mapping those parameters to IV surfaces. We further refine the VAE model by including conditional features and demonstrate its superior generative out-of-sample performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Ning & Sebastian Jaimungal & Xiaorong Zhang & Maxime Bergeron, 2021. "Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface Generation with Variational Autoencoders," Papers 2108.04941, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Coache & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2021. "Reinforcement Learning with Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," Papers 2112.13414, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Magnus Wiese & Ben Wood & Alexandre Pachoud & Ralf Korn & Hans Buehler & Phillip Murray & Lianjun Bai, 2021. "Multi-Asset Spot and Option Market Simulation," Papers 2112.06823, arXiv.org.

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