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The implications of large-scale containment policies on global maritime trade during the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Jasper Verschuur
  • Elco Koks
  • Jim Hall

Abstract

The implementation of large-scale containment measures by governments to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus has resulted in a large supply and demand shock throughout the global economy. Here, we use empirical vessel tracking data and a newly developed algorithm to estimate the global maritime trade losses during the first eight months of the pandemic. Our results show widespread trade losses on a port level with the largest absolute losses found for ports in China, the Middle-East and Western Europe, associated with the collapse of specific supply-chains (e.g. oil, vehicle manufacturing). In total, we estimate that global maritime trade reduced by -7.0% to -9.6% during the first eight months of 2020, which is equal to around 206-286 million tonnes in volume losses and up to 225-412 billion USD in value losses. The fishery, mining and quarrying, electrical equipment and machinery manufacturing, and transport equipment manufacturing sectors are hit hardest, with losses up to 11.8%. Moreover, we find a large geographical disparity in losses, with some small islands developing states and low-income economies suffering the largest relative trade losses. We find a clear negative impact of COVID-19 related business and public transport closures on country-wide exports. Overall, we show how real-time indicators of economic activity can support governments and international organisations in economic recovery efforts and allocate funds to the hardest hit economies and sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasper Verschuur & Elco Koks & Jim Hall, 2020. "The implications of large-scale containment policies on global maritime trade during the COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2010.15907, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2010.15907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    2. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global macroeconomic scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2020-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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