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Concurrent Credit Portfolio Losses

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  • Joachim Sicking
  • Thomas Guhr
  • Rudi Schafer

Abstract

We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector.

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  • Joachim Sicking & Thomas Guhr & Rudi Schafer, 2016. "Concurrent Credit Portfolio Losses," Papers 1604.06917, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1604.06917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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