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Risk aggregation with empirical margins: Latin hypercubes, empirical copulas, and convergence of sum distributions

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  • Georg Mainik

Abstract

This paper studies convergence properties of multivariate distributions constructed by endowing empirical margins with a copula. This setting includes Latin Hypercube Sampling with dependence, also known as the Iman--Conover method. The primary question addressed here is the convergence of the component sum, which is relevant to risk aggregation in insurance and finance. This paper shows that a CLT for the aggregated risk distribution is not available, so that the underlying mathematical problem goes beyond classic functional CLTs for empirical copulas. This issue is relevant to Monte-Carlo based risk aggregation in all multivariate models generated by plugging empirical margins into a copula. Instead of a functional CLT, this paper establishes strong uniform consistency of the estimated sum distribution function and provides a sufficient criterion for the convergence rate $O(n^{-1/2})$ in probability. These convergence results hold for all copulas with bounded densities. Examples with unbounded densities include bivariate Clayton and Gauss copulas. The convergence results are not specific to the component sum and hold also for any other componentwise non-decreasing aggregation function. On the other hand, convergence of estimates for the joint distribution is much easier to prove, including CLTs. Beyond Iman--Conover estimates, the results of this paper apply to multivariate distributions obtained by plugging empirical margins into an exact copula or by plugging exact margins into an empirical copula.

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  • Georg Mainik, 2015. "Risk aggregation with empirical margins: Latin hypercubes, empirical copulas, and convergence of sum distributions," Papers 1508.02749, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.02749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Genest, Christian & Segers, Johan, 2010. "On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2010017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Barbe, Philippe & Genest, Christian & Ghoudi, Kilani & Rémillard, Bruno, 1996. "On Kendall's Process," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 197-229, August.
    3. Embrechts, Paul & Puccetti, Giovanni & Rüschendorf, Ludger, 2013. "Model uncertainty and VaR aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2750-2764.
    4. Packham, Natalie & Schmidt, Wolfgang M., 2008. "Latin hypercube sampling with dependence and applications in finance," CPQF Working Paper Series 15, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF).
    5. Genest, Christian & Segers, Johan, 2010. "On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(8), pages 1837-1845, September.
    6. Arbenz, Philipp & Hummel, Christoph & Mainik, Georg, 2012. "Copula based hierarchical risk aggregation through sample reordering," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 122-133.
    7. Segers, Johan, 2012. "Asymptotics of empirical copula processes under non-restrictive smoothness assumptions," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Genest, Christian & Segers, Johan, 2010. "On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2010038, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Dietmar Pfeifer & Olena Ragulina, 2020. "Generating unfavourable VaR scenarios with patchwork copulas," Papers 2011.06281, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    2. Dietmar Pfeifer & Olena Ragulina, 2018. "Generating VaR Scenarios under Solvency II with Product Beta Distributions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Pfeifer Dietmar & Ragulina Olena, 2021. "Generating unfavourable VaR scenarios under Solvency II with patchwork copulas," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 327-346, January.

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