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Time-consistency of risk measures with GARCH volatilities and their estimation

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  • Claudia Kluppelberg
  • Jianing Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study in detail our construction for the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Average Value-at-Risk (AVaR). While in the VaR case we can derive an analytical formula for its time-consistent counterpart, in the AVaR case we derive lower and upper bounds to its time-consistent version. Furthermore, we incorporate techniques from Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to allow for a more tail-geared statistical analysis of the corresponding risk measures. We conclude with an application of our results to a data set of stock prices.

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  • Claudia Kluppelberg & Jianing Zhang, 2015. "Time-consistency of risk measures with GARCH volatilities and their estimation," Papers 1504.04774, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.04774
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    References listed on IDEAS

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