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The nature of price returns during periods of high market activity

  • Khalil al Dayri
  • Emmanuel Bacry
  • Jean-Francois Muzy
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    By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the intertrade time lags. We find that when the trading rate becomes faster, the return variance per trade or the impact, as measured by the price variation in the direction of the trade, strongly increases. We provide evidence that these properties persist at coarser time scales. We also show that the spread value is an increasing function of the activity. This suggests that order books are more likely empty when the trading rate is high.

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    Paper provided by in its series Papers with number 1010.4226.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2010
    Date of revision: Oct 2010
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1010.4226
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    1. Lillo Fabrizio & Farmer J. Doyne, 2004. "The Long Memory of the Efficient Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-35, September.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0307332, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    3. J. -P. Bouchaud & J. Kockelkoren & M. Potters, 2004. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0406224,, revised Jun 2004.
    4. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2003. "What really causes large price changes?," Papers cond-mat/0312703,, revised Apr 2004.
    5. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-112.
    6. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2008. "Relation between bid-ask spread, impact and volatility in order-driven markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57.
    7. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822,
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