New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales
We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with high frequency Markov type strategies we find that martingale null hypotheses are rejected for many stock price processes.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2009|
|Date of revision:||Feb 2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Computational Economics, vol.37, No.1, 67-88, 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura & Kei Takeuchi, 2005. "Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games," Papers math/0510662, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
- Kei Takeuchi & Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura, 2008. "Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games and its application to asset trading games in continuous time," Papers 0802.4311, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.3273. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.