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New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales

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  • Kei Takeuchi
  • Akimichi Takemura
  • Masayuki Kumon

Abstract

We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with high frequency Markov type strategies we find that martingale null hypotheses are rejected for many stock price processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Takeuchi & Akimichi Takemura & Masayuki Kumon, 2009. "New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales," Papers 0907.3273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.3273
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.3273
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    2. repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura & Kei Takeuchi, 2005. "Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games," Papers math/0510662, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
    4. Kei Takeuchi & Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura, 2008. "Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games and its application to asset trading games in continuous time," Papers 0802.4311, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masayuki Kumon & Jing Li & Akimichi Takemura & Kei Takeuchi, 2012. "Bayesian logistic betting strategy against probability forecasting," Papers 1204.3496, arXiv.org.

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