IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0802.4311.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games and its application to asset trading games in continuous time

Author

Listed:
  • Kei Takeuchi
  • Masayuki Kumon
  • Akimichi Takemura

Abstract

We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trials. We then apply our scheme to asset trading games in continuous time and derive the exponential growth rate of the investor's capital when the variation exponent of the asset price path deviates from two.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Takeuchi & Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura, 2008. "Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games and its application to asset trading games in continuous time," Papers 0802.4311, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0802.4311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0802.4311
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura & Kei Takeuchi, 2005. "Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games," Papers math/0510662, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
    2. Vladimir Vovk, 2007. "Continuous-time trading and emergence of randomness," Papers 0712.1275, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2007.
    3. Vladimir Vovk, 2007. "Continuous-time trading and emergence of volatility," Papers 0712.1483, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kei Takeuchi & Akimichi Takemura & Masayuki Kumon, 2011. "New Procedures for Testing Whether Stock Price Processes are Martingales," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 67-88, January.
    2. Kei Takeuchi & Akimichi Takemura & Masayuki Kumon, 2009. "New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales," Papers 0907.3273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0802.4311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.