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“Economic uncertainty and suicide mortality in postpandemic England”

Author

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  • Maša Soric

    (University Hospital Dubrava)

  • Petar Soric

    (University of Zagreb)

  • Oscar Claveria

    (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between different dimensions of economic uncertainty and suicide rates in England from 1985 to 2020, both in the short and long term. The study employs a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag framework for cointegration estimation. This approach allows testing for the existence of possible asymmetries in the response of suicide mortality to increased economic uncertainty. Uncertainty is gauged by different proxies that allow computing financial uncertainty and labour market uncertainty indicators. The analysis is replicated by gender and across regions, controlling for unemployment and economic growth. Overall, the analysis suggests that uncertainty intensified during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is in line with the stylized facts of economic uncertainty and its pronounced role in recessions. When replicating the experiment by gender, we find that women seem to be more sensitive to changes in uncertainty. Regarding the existence of asymmetries, we found that decreases in economic uncertainty have a greater impact on suicide mortality than increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Maša Soric & Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2023. "“Economic uncertainty and suicide mortality in postpandemic England”," AQR Working Papers 202310, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Dec 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202310
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    File URL: https://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2023/202320.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdou, Rawayda & Cassells, Damien & Berrill, Jenny & Hanly, Jim, 2020. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between business performance and suicide in the US," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    2. Sanna Huikari & Marko Korhonen, 2021. "Unemployment, global economic crises and suicides: evidence from 21 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(13), pages 1540-1550, March.
    3. Khandokar Istiak & Apostolos Serletis, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4222-4233, August.
    4. Phillips, Julie A. & Nugent, Colleen N., 2014. "Suicide and the Great Recession of 2007–2009: The role of economic factors in the 50 U.S. states," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 22-31.
    5. Petar Soric & Ivana Lolic, 2017. "Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 443-477.
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