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Supply Shocks and Inflation Targeting


  • Fabio Kanczuk



We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the Brazilian economy, in which a fraction of the firms set prices one quarter in advance. The artificial economy simulations generate series consistent with real data and with a typical estimation of a structural inflation-targeting model. We argue that these structural models specifications are incorrect for not considering supply shocks. In contrast, our model can separate supply and demand shocks effects, in addition to being (potentially) robust to the Lucas’ Critique.

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  • Fabio Kanczuk, 2003. "Supply Shocks and Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b01, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:b01

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
    2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    3. Sachsida, Adolfo & Junior, Roberto de Góes Ellery & Gomes, Victor, 2002. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(2), April.
    4. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Tombini, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brasil: Shocks. Backward-Looking Prices and IMF Conditionality," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 13, pages 539-582 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    6. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    8. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
    9. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Kanczuk, Fabio, 2002. "Juros Reais e Ciclos Reais Brasileiros," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(2), April.
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    More about this item


    Brazil; Real Business Cycles; Sticky Prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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