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Simulation modeling of epidemic risk in supermarkets: Investigating the impact of social distancing and checkout zone design

Author

Listed:
  • Tomasz Antczak
  • Bartosz Skorupa
  • Mikolaj Szurlej
  • Rafal Weron
  • Jacek Zabawa

Abstract

We build an agent-based model for evaluating the spatial and functional design of supermarket checkout zones and the effectiveness of safety regulations related to distancing that have been introduced after the COVID-19 outbreak. The model is implemented in the NetLogo simulation platform and calibrated to actual point of sale data from one of major European retail chains. It enables realistic modeling of the checkout operations as well as of the airborne diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 particles. We find that opening checkouts in a specific order can reduce epidemic risk, but only under low and moderate traffic conditions. Hence, redesigning supermarket layouts to increase distances between the queues can reduce risk only if the number of open checkouts is sufficient to serve customers during peak hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Antczak & Bartosz Skorupa & Mikolaj Szurlej & Rafal Weron & Jacek Zabawa, 2021. "Simulation modeling of epidemic risk in supermarkets: Investigating the impact of social distancing and checkout zone design," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/05, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2105
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    File URL: https://worms.pwr.edu.pl/RePEc/ahh/wpaper/WORMS_21_05.pdf
    File Function: Original version, 2021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dyani Lewis, 2020. "Mounting evidence suggests coronavirus is airborne — but health advice has not caught up," Nature, Nature, vol. 583(7817), pages 510-513, July.
    2. Tomasz Antczak & Rafal Weron & Jacek Zabawa, 2020. "Data-driven simulation modeling of the checkout process in supermarkets: Insights for decision support in retail operations," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/16, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    3. Qiancheng Xu & Mohcine Chraibi, 2020. "On the Effectiveness of the Measures in Supermarkets for Reducing Contact among Customers during COVID-19 Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Pantano, Eleonora & Pizzi, Gabriele & Scarpi, Daniele & Dennis, Charles, 2020. "Competing during a pandemic? Retailers’ ups and downs during the COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 209-213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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