Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands in Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico’s Major Land Resource Area 41

Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability, resulting in decreased plant productivity and altered species composition, which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates and/or a change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites (ESs) and their associated state-and-transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending upon geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are necessary at the local level to inform local management decisions and help to ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level: it is based on ESs/STMs that will help landowners and government agencies to identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and to support informed decision-making for selecting management adaptations within MLRA 41.