Potential Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Agriculture

This report examines potential agronomic and economic effects of several assumed changedclimate scenarios on grain farming in the United States. The analysis is based on a protocol that links climatic, agronomic, and economic models to form an integrated model. Three assumed climate scenarios are investigated for their relative effects on crop yields, cropping patterns, and farm-level profitability. The climate scenarios are simulated for representative farms in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina. The agronomic results indicate that the mild climate scenario has little effect on crop yields and that farmers can effectively adapt to increasing temperatures and precipitation by selecting later maturing varieties. Corn and soybean yields are negatively affected at all sites in the more severe climatechange scenario. Northern States are less severely affected by both climate scenarios in terms of soybean yields. The economic results suggest crop prices are fairly sensitive to the rate and the form of the assumed climate-change scenario. Under the mild climate-change scenario, corn prices (inflation adjusted) increase and wheat prices decrease. Soybean prices increase, but at a lower rate than in the no climate-change case. In the more severe climate-change scenario, soybean and corn prices have the largest increase over time. Net farm revenue is lower under climate change than in the no climate-change case. However, there is little difference in net farm revenue between the mild and the severe climate-change scenarios.