Long-Term Economic Impacts of No-Till Adoption in the US Midwest

The practice of no-till farming has gained attention in agriculture due to its potential to improve soil health, deliver environmental benefits, and increase farmers’ profits. Despite these agronomic and ecological benefits, national adoption remains limited, with only 27.5% of cropland under no-till in 2022 (USDA-NASS, 2024). A central barrier to broader adoption is uncertainty about the long-term economic returns of no-till, given variation across soil types, crops, and management practices. This study assesses the net economic impact of sustained no-till use over 30 years, utilizing plot-level data from long-term field trials conducted in Ohio and Michigan. We quantify treatment effects on crop yields and input costs using site-by-crop fixed effects models and calculate net changes in profitability via partial budgeting that accounts for seed, fertilizer, pesticide, and field operation costs. Our results indicate that no-till consistently reduces operational costs and generates positive net returns relative to chisel tillage, even when accounting for yield variation across sites. These findings suggest that long-term use of no-till farming has great potential to offer a significant positive impact on farmers' profitability.