IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea09/49403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Land Use Change: A Spatial Multinomial Choice Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Carrion-Flores, Carmen E.
  • Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso
  • Guci, Ledia

Abstract

Urban decentralization and dispersion trends have led to increased conversion of rural lands in many urban peripheries and exurban regions of the U.S. The growth of the exurban areas has outpaced growth in urban and suburban areas, resulting in growth pressures at the urban-rural fringe. A thorough analysis of land use change patterns and the ability to predict these changes are necessary for the effective design of regional environmental, growth, and development policies. We estimate a multinomial discrete choice model with spatial dependence using parcel-level data from Medina County, Ohio. Accounting for spatial dependence should result in improved statistical inference about land use changes. Our spatial model extends the binary choice “linearized logit” model of Klier and McMillen (2008) to a multinomial setting. A small Monte Carlo simulation indicates that this estimator performs reasonably well. Preliminary results suggest that the location of new urban development is guided by a preference over lower density areas, yet in proximity to current urban development. In addition, we find significant evidence of spatial dependence in land use decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrion-Flores, Carmen E. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Guci, Ledia, 2009. "Land Use Change: A Spatial Multinomial Choice Analysis," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49403, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49403
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brasington, David & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Guci, Ledia, 2016. "A spatial model of school district open enrollment choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Lee, Juhee & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Taeyoung & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Armsworth, Paul Robert, 2015. "Exploring tax-based payment approach for forest carbon sequestration," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196873, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Levente Tímár, 2011. "Rural Land Use and Land Tenure in New Zealand," Working Papers 11_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Use Change; Multinomial Logit; Spatial Dependence; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; R14; C21; C25;

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.