Efficient Portfolios of Market Advisory Services: An Application of Shrinkage Estimators
A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to estimate individual expected pricing performance for market advisory programs in corn and soybeans. Performance is defined as the difference between the price/revenue obtained by following the program's marketing recommendations and the average price/revenue offered by the market along the marketing window. The estimates obtained from this model are weighted averages of traditional separate and pooled estimates. Based on the sample employed, the most reasonable individual estimates for expected pricing performance imply a substantial shrinkage towards pooled values. The Bayesian estimates for expected pricing performance range from ¢9/bu to ¢9/bu for corn, from ¢11/bu to ¢17/bu for soybeans and $0.4/acre to $11/acre for revenue. Bayesian estimates are employed in the construction of efficient portfolios of advisory programs. Results suggest that farmers can benefit from following the marketing recommendations of advisory programs portfolios.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Gelman, 2004. "Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2004_06, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Silvina M. Cabrini & Brian G. Stark & Hayri Önal & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & João Martines-Filho, 2004. "Efficiency Analysis of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: A Nonlinear Mixed-Integer Programming Approach," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 237-252, December.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September.
- Isengildina, Olga & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37489, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
- Andrew Gelman, 2004. "Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models," Econometrics 0404001, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.