IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aei/rpaper/828488.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for systemic risk using stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Paul H. Kupiec

    (American Enterprise Institute)

Abstract

Conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and marginal expected shortfall (MES) have been proposed as stock return based measures of the systemic risk created by individual financial institutions even though the literature provides no formal hypothesis test for detecting systemic risk. We address this shortcoming by constructing hypothesis test statistics for CoVaR and MES that can be used to detect systemic risk at the institution level. We apply our tests to daily stock returns data for over 3500 firms during 2006-2007. CoVaR (MES) tests identify almost 500 (1000) firms as systemically important. Both tests identify many more real-side firms than financial firms, and they often disagree about which firms are systemic. Analysis of the hypothesis tests' performance for plausible alternative hypotheses finds that return skewness can cause test rejections and, even when systemic risk imparts a strong signal in stock return distributions, hypothesis tests based on CoVaR and MES may fail to detect it. Our overall conclusion is that CoVaR and MES are not reliable measures of systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul H. Kupiec, 2015. "Testing for systemic risk using stock returns," AEI Economics Working Papers 828488, American Enterprise Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:828488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aei.org/publication/testing-systemic-risk-using-stock-returns
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    2. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    3. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    4. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    6. repec:aei:rpaper:39862 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    8. Adelchi Azzalini, 2005. "The Skew‐normal Distribution and Related Multivariate Families," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 32(2), pages 159-188, June.
    9. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    10. J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5.
    11. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    12. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Singleton, J. Clay & Wingender, John, 1986. "Skewness Persistence in Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 335-341, September.
    15. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    16. repec:aei:rpaper:2070 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    18. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    19. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kreis, Yvonne & Leisen, Dietmar P.J., 2018. "Systemic risk in a structural model of bank default linkages," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-236.
    2. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-251, August.
    3. Hai-Chuan Xu & Fredj Jawadi & Jie Zhou & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Quantifying interconnectedness and centrality ranking among financial institutions with TVP-VAR framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 93-110, July.
    4. Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Deng, Yuanyue & Chen, Pingshe & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers between energy and agriculture under the financial and COVID-19 crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Franklin Allen & Itay Goldstein & Julapa Jagtiani & William W. Lang, 2016. "Enhancing Prudential Standards in Financial Regulations," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 133-149, June.
    7. Wided Khiari & Salim Ben Sassi, 2019. "On Identifying the Systemically Important Tunisian Banks: An Empirical Approach Based on the △CoVaR Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    9. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Javed, Farrukh & Sabzevari, Hassan & Virk, Nader, 2021. "Tail risk emanating from troubled European banking sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Zhang, Ailian & Pan, Mengmeng & Liu, Bai & Weng, Yin-Che, 2020. "Systemic risk: The coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 415-429.
    12. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-251, August.
    13. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    2. Peter Grundke, 2019. "Ranking consistency of systemic risk measures: a simulation-based analysis in a banking network model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 953-990, May.
    3. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    5. Edward M. H. Lin & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 579-603, March.
    6. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Jean-Baptiste Hasse, 2022. "Systemic risk: a network approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 313-344, July.
    8. Bierth, Christopher & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Systemic risk of insurers around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-245.
    9. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    10. Dungey, Mardi & Luciani, Matteo & Veredas, David, 2018. "Systemic risk in the US: Interconnectedness as a circuit breaker," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 305-315.
    11. Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda, 2017. "Systemic risk and individual risk: A trade-off?," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Systemic risk in international stock markets: Role of the oil market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-619.
    13. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Chang, Carolyn W. & Li, Xiaodan & Lin, Edward M.H. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 273-284.
    15. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    16. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    18. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    19. Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2021. "Did the Basel Process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    20. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:828488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dave Adams, CIO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeiiius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.