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Estimating Revenue Under Collusion-Proof Auctions


  • Gaurab Aryal
  • Maria F. Gabrielli



We propose a method to nonparametriclly estimate the revenue under a auction that is efficient and resilient to collusion [Chen and Micali, 2012]. Efficiency is achieved on account of a lower revenue and we propose a method to quantify this efficiency-revenue trade-off, i.e. the extra cost for which efficient allocation can be guaranteed even when bidders collude. We implement a local polynomial estimation method on sample of California highway procurements data and find that to achieve efficiency the cost of procurement must increase by at lest 10.8% and can go up to 48.8% depending on the size of bidding-ring.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaurab Aryal & Maria F. Gabrielli, 2012. "Estimating Revenue Under Collusion-Proof Auctions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-597, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2012-597

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    Cited by:

    1. Anil Chorppath & Tansu Alpcan & Holger Boche, 2015. "Adversarial Behavior in Network Games," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 26-64, March.
    2. Florencia M. Gabrielli, 2013. "Detecting Collusion on Highway Procurement," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 59, pages 127-165, January-D.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • L4 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies

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