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Scenario analysis of online food supply chains

In: Adapting to the Future: How Digitalization Shapes Sustainable Logistics and Resilient Supply Chain Management. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), Vol. 31

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  • Beckmann, Anne

Abstract

Purpose: For a long time, online food retail, especially in Germany, lagged strongly behind other e-commerce industries. The COVID-19 pandemic gave this market an unforeseen boost in demand. Nevertheless, numerous problems still exist in the industry, such as lack of profitability, staff shortages, and product returns. Identifying possible future developments can help to design meaningful strategies for the fulfillment within online food supply chains. Methodology: The scenarios are built using Porter's Five Forces in combination with a STEPE analysis examining socio-cultural, technological, economic, political, and ecological factors. The findings are validated and ranked by four interviews with experts working in the online food retail industry. Findings: The literature research and the assessment of the experts show that above all socio-cultural (e.g., customers' price sensitivity) and technological factors (e.g., warehouse automation) will be decisive for the future development of the industry. These are combined to form three scenarios (best-case, worst-case, focus on shelf-stable food). Implications for online food retailers are given for each scenario. Originality: This paper applies methods of trend and future research to the areas of online food retail and logistics and supply chain management research. In this area only little original scientific research exists.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Anne, 2021. "Scenario analysis of online food supply chains," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. & Blecker, Thorsten (ed.), Adapting to the Future: How Digitalization Shapes Sustainable Logistics and Resilient Supply Chain Management. Proceedings of the Hamburg Internationa, volume 31, pages 585-609, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hiclch:249630
    DOI: 10.15480/882.3956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saarijärvi, Hannu & Mitronen, Lasse & Yrjölä, Mika, 2014. "From selling to supporting – Leveraging mobile services in the context of food retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 26-36.
    2. Yeo, Vincent Cheow Sern & Goh, See-Kwong & Rezaei, Sajad, 2017. "Consumer experiences, attitude and behavioral intention toward online food delivery (OFD) services," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 150-162.
    3. Christian Seitz, 2013. "E-Grocery as New Innovative Distribution Channel in the German Food Retailing," Active Citizenship by Knowledge Management & Innovation: Proceedings of the Management, Knowledge and Learning International Conference 2013,, ToKnowPress.
    4. Beckmann, Anne & Kleineidam, Julia & Straube, Frank, 2020. "Success factors for online food retail logistics," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Blecker, Thorsten & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Data Science and Innovation in Supply Chain Management: How Data Transforms the Value Chain. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Lo, volume 29, pages 851-873, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
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