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Oil Consumption and GNP Relationship In Turkey: An Empirical Study

In: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

  • Erdal Karagöl

    (Balýkesir Üniversitesi)

  • Erman Erbaykal

    (Balýkesir Üniversitesi)

  • H.Murat Ertuðrul

    (Balýkesir Üniversitesi)

This paper will investigate the causal relationship between oil consumption and GNP. For this purpose, we will investigate the presence of cointegration among the variables and use a vector error correction model to test causality relationship. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1971–2003 suggest that there is cointegration relationship between GNP and oil consumption. We found no causal relationship between oil consumption and GNP in short run whereas there is a long run unidirectional causality running from GNP to oil consumption.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), 2006. "Proceedings of the International Conference on Human and Economic Resources," Proceedings of the IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, Izmir University of Economics, number 2006, October.
  • This item is provided by Izmir University of Economics in its series Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics with number 200630.
    Handle: RePEc:izm:prcdng:200630
    Contact details of provider: Fax: (90) 232 279 2626
    Web page: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr

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    1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    2. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
    6. Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
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