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World Bank South Asia Economic Update 2010 : Moving Up, Looking East

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  • World Bank

Abstract

South Asia's rebound since March 2009 has been strong and is comparable to that in East Asia. South Asia is poised to grow by about 7 percent in 2010 and nearly 8 percent in 2011, thanks to the strong recovery in India, good performances in Bangladesh, post-conflict bounce in Sri Lanka, recovery in Pakistan, and turnarounds in other countries, including Afghanistan, Maldives, and Nepal. The region's prospective growth is close to pre-crisis peak levels and faster than the high rates of the early part of the decade (6.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2007). The recovery is being led by rising domestic confidence and is balanced in terms of domestic versus external demand, consumption versus investment, and private demand versus reliance on stimulus. Government policy, external support, resumption of private spending, and global recovery are driving the rebound. Strong government fiscal and monetary stimulus packages and, in some cases, external assistance are helping stimulate recovery. Improved optimism is helping the recovery in private spending in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. World trade and demand recovery are also supporting the rebound in exports and tourism, as are capital inflows. Not everyone is doing equally well, with slower recovery in countries with weaker fundamentals, those with unresolved conflict or post-conflict issues, and those that were heavily exposed to the global downturn (Maldives, Nepal, and Pakistan). Some significant risks are ahead in the global environment, slowing worker remittances and exports in a still hesitant and uncertain global recovery (which recent events in Europe have highlighted), volatile commodity prices, and continuing volatility in global capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank, 2010. "World Bank South Asia Economic Update 2010 : Moving Up, Looking East," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2504, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:2504
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara & Marco E. Terrones, 2020. "Global Recessions," Working Papers 162, Peruvian Economic Association.
    2. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    3. Kumar, Sushil & Ahmed, Shahid, 2014. "Growth and Pattern of Intra-Industry Trade between India and Bangladesh: 1975–2010," MPRA Paper 61113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Dec 2014.
    4. De, Prabir & Neogi, Chiranjib, 2011. "Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 294, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. M. N. Khan & N. Tantisantiwong & S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power, 2015. "The relationship between South Asian stock returns and macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1298-1313, March.
    6. Tortajada, Cecilia & Saklani, Udisha, 2018. "Hydropower-based collaboration in South Asia: The case of India and Bhutan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 316-325.
    7. Rahul Anand & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mr. Saurabh Mishra, 2015. "Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2015/119, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Patrick Blagrave, 2020. "Inflation co-movement in emerging and developing Asia: the monsoon effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1277-1283, September.
    9. De, Prabir & Raihan, Selim & Kathuria, Sanjay, 2012. "Unlocking Bangladesh-India trade : emerging potential and the way forward," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6155, The World Bank.
    10. Jayatilleke S. Bandara, 2013. "What is Driving India’s Food Inflation? A Survey of Recent Evidence," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 127-156, March.
    11. Beddewela, Eshani & Herzig, Christian, 2013. "Corporate social reporting by MNCs’ subsidiaries in Sri Lanka," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 135-149.

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