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In der Tiefebene - IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2009

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  • Arbeitsgruppe Konjunktur

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich in der schwersten Rezession seit 60 Jahren. Über einen Einbruch der Auslandsnachfrage und der Exporttätigkeit hat die Krise auf Deutschland übergegriffen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland in diesem Jahr um gut 4 ½ Prozent sinken, im Jahr 2010 wird es um ½ Prozent zulegen. Damit dürfte die Talsohle im Laufe dieses Jahres erreicht, aber nicht durchschritten werden. Der Außenhandel – die Exporte werden 2009 um 17 Prozent und die Importe um 11 Prozent einbrechen – wird in diesem Jahr etwa drei Viertel des Wachstumseinbruchs verursachen. Im kommenden Jahr wird der Außenbeitrag die Konjunktur wieder in geringem Ausmaß stützen. Die Rezession wird sich auch negativ auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt auswirken. Die Erwerbstätigkeit wird in diesem und im nächsten Jahr um jeweils knapp 1 ½ Prozent zurückgehen, und die Anzahl der Arbeitslosen wird im Jahr 2009 auf 3,75 Millionen und im Jahr 2010 auf 4,3 Millionen ansteigen. Sinkende Einnahmen und steigende Ausgaben werden das Staatsdefizit in diesem Jahr auf rund 3 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt ansteigen lassen. Im Jahr 2010 dürfte der Fehlbetrag bei 5 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbeitsgruppe Konjunktur, 2009. "In der Tiefebene - IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2009," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 15-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:156976
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.09-02-02
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    1. Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2009. "Estimating the size of the European stimulus packages," Policy Contributions 266, Bruegel.
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