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Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process

Author

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  • Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz
  • Mariola Chrzanowska

Abstract

Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In the case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in € per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz & Mariola Chrzanowska, 2021. "Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(3), pages 137-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:31:y:2021:i:3:p:137-152:id:1582
    DOI: 10.37190/ord210307
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agnieszka Tluczak & Miroslawa Szewczyk, 2010. "The Effectiveness Of The Autoregressive Models In Forecasting The Agricultural Prices In Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 99-119, December.
    2. Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Panwar, Sanjeev & Sarkar, Susheel Kumar & Kumar, Anil & Singh, K.N. & Farooqi, Samir & Choudhary, Vipin Kumar, 2013. "Modelling and Forecasting of Meat Exports from India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
    3. Agnieszka Tluczak & Miroslawa Szewczyk, 2010. "The Effectiveness Of The Autoregressive Models In Forecasting The Agricultural Prices In Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne Oddzial w Toruniu, Wydzial Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarzadzania UMK, vol. 1(1), pages 99-119, December.
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