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Modelling and Forecasting of Meat Exports from India

Author

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  • Paul, Ranjit Kumar
  • Panwar, Sanjeev
  • Sarkar, Susheel Kumar
  • Kumar, Anil
  • Singh, K.N.
  • Farooqi, Samir
  • Choudhary, Vipin Kumar

Abstract

In the present study, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology has been applied for modelling and forecasting of monthly export of meat and meat products from India. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has been used for testing the stationarity of the series. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions have been estimated, which have led to the identification and construction of SARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future export. The evaluation of forecasting of export of meat and meat preparations has been carried out with root mean squares prediction error (RMSPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) and relative mean absolute prediction error (RMAPE). The residuals of the fitted models were used for the diagnostic checking. The best identified model for the data under consideration was used for out-of-sample forecasting along with the upper and lower 95 per cent confidence interval up to the year 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Panwar, Sanjeev & Sarkar, Susheel Kumar & Kumar, Anil & Singh, K.N. & Farooqi, Samir & Choudhary, Vipin Kumar, 2013. "Modelling and Forecasting of Meat Exports from India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aerrae:162149
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162149
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    Cited by:

    1. Ram Singh & Areej Aftab Siddiqui, 2021. "Identifying Markets and Forecasting Export Prospects for India’s Marine Products," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(1), pages 57-72, June.
    2. Ette Harrison Etuk & Belief Nsirimobi Elenga & Maxwell Awoingo Adonijah & Wokoma Dagogo Samuel Allen & Felicia Ette Etuk, 2014. "A SARIMA Fit to Monthly Nigerian Import Commodity Price Indices," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(5), pages 306-313.
    3. Paul, R.K., 2014. "Forecasting Wholesale Price of Pigeon Pea Using Long Memory Time-Series Models," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 27(2).
    4. Alma Braimllari (Spaho) & Oltiana Toshkollari, 2016. "Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Food Exports in Albania," European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, January -.
    5. Ette Harrison Etuk, 2014. "An Additive SARIMA Model for Daily Exchange Rates of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) and Nigerian Naira (NGN)," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 193-201.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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