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A Comparative Study Of Monotone Quantile Regression Methods For Financial Returns

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  • YUZHI CAI

    (School of Management, Swansea University, Swansea, SA1 8EN, UK)

Abstract

Quantile regression methods have been used widely in finance to alleviate estimation problems related to the impact of outliers and the fat-tailed error distribution of financial returns. However, a potential problem with the conventional quantile regression method is that the estimated conditional quantiles may cross over, leading to a failure of the analysis. It is noticed that the crossing over issues usually occur at high or low quantile levels, which are the quantile levels of great interest when analyzing financial returns. Several methods have appeared in the literature to tackle this problem. This study compares three methods, i.e. Cai & Jiang, Bondell et al. and Schnabel & Eilers, for estimating noncrossing conditional quantiles by using four financial return series. We found that all these methods provide similar quantiles at nonextreme quantile levels. However, at extreme quantile levels, the methods of Bondell et al. and Schnabel & Eilers may underestimate (overestimate) upper (lower) extreme quantiles, while that of Cai & Jiang may overestimate (underestimate) upper (lower) extreme quantiles. All methods provide similar median forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuzhi Cai, 2016. "A Comparative Study Of Monotone Quantile Regression Methods For Financial Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:19:y:2016:i:03:n:s0219024916500163
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024916500163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sabine Schnabel & Paul Eilers, 2013. "Simultaneous estimation of quantile curves using quantile sheets," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(1), pages 77-87, January.
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    4. Thompson, Paul & Cai, Yuzhi & Moyeed, Rana & Reeve, Dominic & Stander, Julian, 2010. "Bayesian nonparametric quantile regression using splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1138-1150, April.
    5. Yuzhi Cai & Julian Stander, 2008. "Quantile self‐exciting threshold autoregressive time series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 186-202, January.
    6. Yu, Keming & Moyeed, Rana A., 2001. "Bayesian quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 437-447, October.
    7. Holger Dette & Stanislav Volgushev, 2008. "Non‐crossing non‐parametric estimates of quantile curves," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 609-627, July.
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