IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/igtrxx/v16y2014i01ns0219198914400052.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Backward Induction Or Forward Reasoning? – An Experiment Of Stochastic Alternating Offer Bargaining

Author

Listed:
  • SIEGFRIED K. BERNINGHAUS

    (Institute for Economic Theory and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76049 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • WERNER GÜTH

    (Strategic Interaction Group, Max Planck Institute of Economics, 07745 Jena, Germany)

  • STEPHAN SCHOSSER

    (Chair of Empirical Economics, University of Magdeburg, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany)

Abstract

Bounded rationality questions backward induction without necessarily excluding such reasoning when anticipation is easy. In our stochastic (alternating offer) bargaining experiment, there is a certain first-period pie and a known finite deadline. What is uncertain (except for the final period) is whether there is a further period. Whereas backward induction requires information about all later pie sizes and probabilities, forward reasoning is expected to rely on reasoning for which only the immediate prospects may be relevant. Rather than relying only on decision data, we assess forward reasoning by control of information retrieval before the first move. Participants begin with the shortest games before playing possibly longer games. Surprisingly they rely on forward reasoning already for the shortest game as revealed by their information retrieval and choice data.

Suggested Citation

  • Siegfried K. Berninghaus & Werner Güth & Stephan Schosser, 2014. "Backward Induction Or Forward Reasoning? – An Experiment Of Stochastic Alternating Offer Bargaining," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 1-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:igtrxx:v:16:y:2014:i:01:n:s0219198914400052
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219198914400052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219198914400052
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219198914400052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katrin Schmelz, 2011. "E-nstructions: A Tool for Electronic Instructions in Laboratory Experiments," Jena Economics Research Papers 2011-008, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Avrahami, Judith & Güth, Werner & Hertwig, Ralph & Kareev, Yaakov & Otsubo, Hironori, 2013. "Learning (not) to yield: An experimental study of evolving ultimatum game behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Güth, Werner & Kocher, Martin G., 2014. "More than thirty years of ultimatum bargaining experiments: Motives, variations, and a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 396-409.
    2. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Debrah Meloso & Luis Miller, 2017. "Strategic risk and response time across games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 46(2), pages 511-523, May.
    3. Kong, Jianning & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2019. "Weak σ-convergence: Theory and applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 185-207.
    4. Kionka, Marlene & Kuethe, Todd H. & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Bargaining Power in the Agricultural Land Rental Market," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322186, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Werner Güth & Hironori Otsubo, 2021. "Trust in generosity: an experiment of the repeated Yes–No game," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-77, April.
    6. Winter, Fabian & Rauhut, Heiko & Miller, Luis, 2018. "Dynamic Bargaining and Normative Conflict," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 112-126.
    7. Einav Hart & Judith Avrahami & Yaakov Kareev & Peter M. Todd, 2014. "Investing Even in Uneven Contests: Effects of Asymmetry on Investment in Experimental All-Pay Contests," Discussion Paper Series dp660, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Backward induction; forward reasoning; bargaining; experimental analysis; D03; D50; D82;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:igtrxx:v:16:y:2014:i:01:n:s0219198914400052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/igtr/igtr.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.