IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/sustdv/v33y2025is1p1537-1550.html

Dialogue or Decision‐Making: Exploring the Role of Modelling in Adaptation Pathways Development and Its Links With Participation

Author

Listed:
  • Wouter Julius Smolenaars
  • Raffaele Vignola
  • Wout Sommerauer
  • Spyridon Paparrizos
  • Maria del Pozo Garcia
  • Bregje van der Bolt

Abstract

Adaptation pathways are an emerging planning approach to manage the long‐term uncertainties related to climatic and environmental changes. Although models are widely used in pathways processes, their specific application and contribution throughout pathways development remain poorly understood. This study presents a scoping review that characterizes the role of modeling in pathways development and explores its link with participation. The findings reveal that process‐based simulation models are used most, mainly to provide detailed scientific information on system dynamics, future uncertainties, and the performance of adaptation strategies. This type of modeling is expert‐driven and is therefore prevalent in technocratic pathways processes with limited stakeholder participation. In contrast, participatory pathways development frequently relies on decision‐support and conceptual models, which serve as interactive tools to gather knowledge and enhance dialogue and social learning among stakeholders. These models prioritize the communication of ideas among participants over accurate system representation and detailed scientific insights. This study consequently reveals a trade‐off, with more intensive and technically detailed model use predominantly found in pathways development processes featuring limited stakeholder participation, and vice versa. Future research should explore how quantitative modeling of uncertainties can be integrated more effectively into participatory pathways processes to better address complex adaptation challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Wouter Julius Smolenaars & Raffaele Vignola & Wout Sommerauer & Spyridon Paparrizos & Maria del Pozo Garcia & Bregje van der Bolt, 2025. "Dialogue or Decision‐Making: Exploring the Role of Modelling in Adaptation Pathways Development and Its Links With Participation," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(S1), pages 1537-1550, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:33:y:2025:i:s1:p:1537-1550
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.70081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70081
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/sd.70081?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Volker Grimm & Alice S. A. Johnston & H.-H. Thulke & V. E. Forbes & P. Thorbek, 2020. "Three questions to ask before using model outputs for decision support," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-3, December.
    2. Christoffer Carstens & Karin Mossberg Sonnek & Riitta Räty & Per Wikman-Svahn & Annika Carlsson-Kanyama & Jonathan Metzger, 2019. "Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Lawrence, Judy & Haasnoot, Marjolijn, 2017. "What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-57.
    4. Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan & Hong Quan Nguyen & Berry Gersonius & Assela Pathirana & Ky Quang Vinh & Richard M. Ashley & Chris Zevenbergen, 2018. "Coping capacities for improving adaptation pathways for flood protection in Can Tho, Vietnam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 29-41, July.
    5. Mark Zandvoort & Nora Kooijmans & Paul Kirshen & Adri van den Brink, 2019. "Designing with Pathways: A Spatial Design Approach for Adaptive and Sustainable Landscapes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Yang Liu & Karine Dupre & Xin Jin & David Weaver, 2020. "Dalian’s unique planning history and its contested heritage in urban regeneration," Planning Perspectives, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 873-894, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ravish K. Rathee & Sudipta K. Mishra, 2024. "Climate change impact assessment on the water resources of the Upper Yamuna River Basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18477-18498, July.
    2. Sem J. Duijndam & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Liselotte C. Hagedoorn & Philip Bubeck & Toon Haer & My Pham & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Janet Stephenson & Careoline Orchiston & Wendy Saunders & Suzi Kerr & Alex MacMillan & Leigh McKenzie & Maria Bartlett & Jonathan Boston & Christopher Brankin & Stephanie Clare & Nicholas Craddock-Hen, 2018. "Communities and Climate Change: Vulnerability to Rising Seas and More Frequent Flooding," Motu Notes Note_30, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    4. Mark Zandvoort & Nora Kooijmans & Paul Kirshen & Adri van den Brink, 2019. "Designing with Pathways: A Spatial Design Approach for Adaptive and Sustainable Landscapes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Joop de Kraker & Astrid Offermans & Merel M. van der Wal, 2021. "Game-Based Social Learning for Socially Sustainable Water Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Rachid Belaroussi & Margherita Pazzini & Israa Issa & Corinne Dionisio & Claudio Lantieri & Elena Díaz González & Valeria Vignali & Sonia Adelé, 2023. "Assessing the Future Streetscape of Rimini Harbor Docks with Virtual Reality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & Calabrese, Justin M. & Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara & Ferrer, Jordi & Franz, Mathias & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Hartig, Florian & Jakoby, Oliver & Jovani, Roger & Kramer-Schadt, S, 2025. "Using the ODD protocol and NetLogo to replicate agent-based models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    9. Gold, Harriet M. & Hannam, Jacqueline A. & Potts, Simon G. & Brittain, Claire & Galic, Nika & Johnston, Alice S.A., 2026. "Evaluating biological realism in ecological modelling: application of a novel framework to compare mechanistic and process-based earthworm and wild pollinator population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 512(C).
    10. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Maaike Aalst & Julie Rozenberg & Kathleen Dominique & John Matthews & Laurens M. Bouwer & Jarl Kind & N. LeRoy Poff, 2020. "Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 451-463, August.
    11. Luca Rossini & Mario Contarini & Stefano Speranza & Serhan Mermer & Vaughn Walton & Frédéric Francis & Emanuele Garone, 2024. "Life tables in entomology: A discussion on tables’ parameters and the importance of raw data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Robert-Jan Den Haan & Mascha C. Van der Voort, 2018. "On Evaluating Social Learning Outcomes of Serious Games to Collaboratively Address Sustainability Problems: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-26, December.
    13. Fekete, Alexander & Fuchs, Sven & Garschagen, Matthias & Hutter, Gérard & Klepp, Silja & Lüder, Catharina & Neise, Thomas & Sett, Dominic & von Elverfeldt, Kirsten & Wannewitz, Mia, 2022. "Adjustment or transformation? Disaster risk intervention examples from Austria, Indonesia, Kiribati and South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Babaeian, Fariba & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    15. Nicholas A. Cradock-Henry & Bob Frame & Benjamin L. Preston & Andy Reisinger & Dale S. Rothman, 2018. "Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 333-341, October.
    16. Mohamed A. Abdelhafez & Hussam N. Mahmoud & Bruce R. Ellingwood, 2024. "Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    19. Gerling, Charlotte & Drechsler, Martin & Keuler, Klaus & Leins, Johannes A. & Radtke, Kai & Schulz, Björn & Sturm, Astrid & Wätzold, Frank, 2021. "Modelling the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes facing climate change," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242352, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. An, Li & Grimm, Volker & Sullivan, Abigail & Turner II, B.L. & Malleson, Nicolas & Heppenstall, Alison & Vincenot, Christian & Robinson, Derek & Ye, Xinyue & Liu, Jianguo & Lindkvist, Emilie & Tang, W, 2021. "Challenges, tasks, and opportunities in modeling agent-based complex systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:33:y:2025:i:s1:p:1537-1550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1719 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.