IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v5y1985i3p195-208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Max Henrion
  • M. Granger Morgan

Abstract

The use of appropriately designed computer aids for policy could improve the standards of risk analysis and other quantitative policy analysis in several important ways. They could make it easier to treat uncertainties more thoroughly and systematically than is now typical. To do this, they should provide a broad variety of techniques for representing uncertain quantities as ranges of alternative values or as probability distributions, for propagating uncertainties through a model, for analyzing and comparing the impacts of different sources of uncertainty, and for displaying results in various numerical and graphic formats. A nonprocedural modeling language allowing interactive editing of input values and model structure could encourage exploration and progressive refinement of models, and comparison of alternative formulations. The integration of model documentation and explanatory text within the computer representation could encourage maintenance of consistency between different versions of the mathematical structure and their descriptions. It could also allow interactive scrutiny of the model assumptions and sensitivities by outside reviewers. We describe a particular system, Demos, designed to provide these facilities and test their usefulness. The use of Demos is illustrated by an analysis of the risks and optimal control level for a hypothetical air pollutant, with uncertainty about the population exposure, health effects, and control costs. This example demonstrates progressive refinement of a model, and various kinds of parametric and probabilistic uncertainty analysis. Demos is now being used by a growing number of risk analysts, students, and policy researchers in a wide variety of tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Henrion & M. Granger Morgan, 1985. "A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3), pages 195-208, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:5:y:1985:i:3:p:195-208
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00170.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00170.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00170.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nair, Indira & Morgan, M. Granger & Henrion, Max, 1982. "Office automation : Assessing energy implications," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 207-222, September.
    2. David C. Cox & Paul Baybutt, 1981. "Methods for Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparative Survey," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 251-258, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. S.Y. Jimmy Chan, 1993. "An Alternative Approach to the Modeling of Probability Distributions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 97-102, February.
    2. Harald Ibrekk & M. Granger Morgan, 1987. "Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 519-529, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Awady, Ahmed & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2021. "Integration of simulation and Markov Chains to support Bayesian Networks for probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. James K. Hammitt, 1990. "Subjective‐Probability‐Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 93-102, March.
    3. Vincent T. Covello, 1987. "Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 131-139, June.
    4. Fritz A. Seiler, 1987. "Error Propagation for Large Errors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 509-518, December.
    5. John H. Miller, 1996. "Active Nonlinear Tests (ANTs) of Complex Simulation Models," Working Papers 96-03-011, Santa Fe Institute.
    6. Gradov, Dmitry Vladimirovich & Yusuf, Yusuf Oluwatoki & Ohjainen, Jussi & Suuronen, Jarkko & Eskola, Roope & Roininen, Lassi & Koiranen, Tuomas, 2022. "Modelling of a continuous veneer drying unit of industrial scale and model-based ANOVA of the energy efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    7. John H. Miller, 1998. "Active Nonlinear Tests (ANTs) of Complex Simulation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(6), pages 820-830, June.
    8. Yan, Weichao & Meng, Xiangzhao & Cui, Xin & Liu, Yilin & Chen, Qian & Jin, Liwen, 2022. "Evaporative cooling performance prediction and multi-objective optimization for hollow fiber membrane module using response surface methodology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    9. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    10. Andrew E. Smith & P. Barry Ryan & John S. Evans, 1992. "The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 467-474, December.
    11. Fritz A. Seiler & Joseph L. Alvarez, 1996. "On the Selection of Distributions for Stochastic Variables," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 5-18, February.
    12. Anand Patwardhan & Mitchell J. Small, 1992. "Bayesian Methods for Model Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Future Sea Level Rise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 513-523, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:5:y:1985:i:3:p:195-208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.