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Modeling of Salmonella Contamination in the Pig Slaughterhouse

Author

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  • A. N. Swart
  • E. G. Evers
  • R. L. L. Simons
  • M. Swanenburg

Abstract

In this article we present a model for Salmonella contamination of pig carcasses in the slaughterhouse. This model forms part of a larger QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) on Salmonella in slaughter and breeder pigs, which uses a generic model framework that can be parameterized for European member states, to describe the entire chain from farm‐to‐consumption and the resultant human illness. We focus on model construction, giving mathematical formulae to describe Salmonella concentrations on individual pigs and slaughter equipment at different stages of the slaughter process. Variability among individual pigs and over slaughterhouses is incorporated using statistical distributions, and simulated by Monte Carlo iteration. We present the results over the various slaughter stages and show that such a framework is especially suitable to investigate the effect of various interventions. In this article we present the results of the slaughterhouse module for two case study member states. The model outcome represents an increase in average prevalence of Salmonella contamination and Salmonella numbers at dehairing and a decrease of Salmonella numbers at scalding. These results show good agreement when compared to several other QMRAs and microbiological studies.

Suggested Citation

  • A. N. Swart & E. G. Evers & R. L. L. Simons & M. Swanenburg, 2016. "Modeling of Salmonella Contamination in the Pig Slaughterhouse," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 498-515, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:3:p:498-515
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12514
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emma L. Snary & Arno N. Swart & Robin R. L. Simons & Ana Rita Calado Domingues & Hakan Vigre & Eric G. Evers & Tine Hald & Andrew A. Hill, 2016. "A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 437-449, March.
    2. Maarten J. Nauta & Wilma F. Jacobs‐Reitsma & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 845-861, August.
    3. Emma L. Snary & Arno N. Swart & Tine Hald, 2016. "Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment and Source Attribution for Salmonella: Taking it Further," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 433-436, March.
    4. Tine Hald & David Vose & Henrik C. Wegener & Timour Koupeev, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Quantify the Contribution of Animal‐Food Sources to Human Salmonellosis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 255-269, February.
    5. Sumeet R. Patil & H. Christopher Frey, 2004. "Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Based on Applications to a Food Safety Risk Assessment Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 573-585, June.
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    1. Eduardo de Freitas Costa & Luis Gustavo Corbellini & Ana Paula Serafini Poeta da Silva & Maarten Nauta, 2017. "A Stochastic Model to Assess the Effect of Meat Inspection Practices on the Contamination of the Pig Carcasses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1849-1864, October.

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