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A Monte Carlo Procedure for the Construction of Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions for Comparison with the EPA Release Limits for Radioactive Waste Disposal

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  • J. C. Helton
  • A. W. Shiver

Abstract

A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for comparison with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) release limits for radioactive waste disposal (40 CFR 191, Subpart B) is described and illustrated with results from a recent performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The Monte Carlo procedure produces CCDF estimates similar to those obtained with importance sampling in several recent PAs for the WIPP. The advantages of the Monte Carlo procedure over importance sampling include increased resolution in the calculation of probabilities for complex scenarios involving drilling intrusions and better use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that underlie CCDF construction.

Suggested Citation

  • J. C. Helton & A. W. Shiver, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Procedure for the Construction of Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions for Comparison with the EPA Release Limits for Radioactive Waste Disposal," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 43-55, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:16:y:1996:i:1:p:43-55
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01435.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & H.‐N. Jow & M. G. Marietta & G. Basabilvazo, 1999. "Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 959-986, October.
    2. Marseguerra, Marzio & Zio, Enrico, 1998. "Monte Carlo simulation of the effects of human intrusion on groundwater contaminant transport," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 361-369.

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