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The Causal Sequence of Risk Communication in the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment

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  • Dennis S. Mileti
  • Colleen Fitzpatrick

Abstract

A model of public perception and response to communication about natural hazards risk was constructed. It was estimated on data from samples of households in three communities at risk in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Estimated model parameters revealed consistent conclusions. Communicated risk information that was reinforced through additional communications and/or social cues precipitated an interactive personal search for more information; personal definitions of risk and what to do emerged; and these social constructions directed how the public responded. Perceived risk only indirectly impacted public action through information searching. This suggests that searching behavior should intervene between perception of risk and response in the theory of public risk communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis S. Mileti & Colleen Fitzpatrick, 1992. "The Causal Sequence of Risk Communication in the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 393-400, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:3:p:393-400
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb00691.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger E. Kasperson, 1986. "Six Propositions on Public Participation and Their Relevance for Risk Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 275-281, September.
    2. F. Reed Johnson & Ann Fisher, 1989. "Conventional Wisdom on Risk Communication and Evidence from a Field Experiment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(2), pages 209-213, June.
    3. Roger E. Kasperson & Ortwin Renn & Paul Slovic & Halina S. Brown & Jacque Emel & Robert Goble & Jeanne X. Kasperson & Samuel Ratick, 1988. "The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 177-187, June.
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