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When to commit in a serial supply chain with forecast updating

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  • Mark E. Ferguson

Abstract

Negotiations between an end product manufacturer and a parts supplier often revolve around two main issues: the supplier's price and the length of time the manufacturer is contractually held to its order quantity, commonly termed the “commitment time frame.” Because actual demand is unknown, the specification of the commitment time frame determines how the demand risk is shared among the members of the supply chain. Casual observation indicates that most manufacturers prefer to delay commitments as long as possible while suppliers prefer early commitments. In this paper, we investigate whether these goals are always in the firm's best interest. In particular, we find that the manufacturer may sometimes be better off with a contract that requires an early commitment to its order quantity, before the supplier commits resources and the supplier may sometimes be better off with a delayed commitment. We also find that the preferred commitment time frame depends upon which member of the supply chain has the power to set their exchange price. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Mark E. Ferguson, 2003. "When to commit in a serial supply chain with forecast updating," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(8), pages 917-936, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:50:y:2003:i:8:p:917-936
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.10095
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yulan Wang & Baozhuang Niu & Pengfei Guo & Jing-Sheng Song, 2021. "Direct Sourcing or Agent Sourcing? Contract Negotiation in Procurement Outsourcing," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 294-310, March.
    2. Mark E. Ferguson & Gregory A. DeCroix & Paul H. Zipkin, 2005. "Commitment decisions with partial information updating," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(8), pages 780-795, December.
    3. Yimin Wang & Brian Tomlin, 2009. "To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(8), pages 766-779, December.
    4. Caliskan Demirag, Ozgun & Xue, Weili & Wang, Jie, 2021. "Retailers’ Order Timing Strategies under Competition and Demand Uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Soo-Haeng Cho & Christopher S. Tang, 2013. "Advance Selling in a Supply Chain Under Uncertain Supply and Demand," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 305-319, May.
    6. Housheng Duan & Jiayan Xu, 2023. "Remanufacturing and Product Recovery Strategies Considering Chain-to-Chain Competition and Power Structures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-26, May.

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