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How Improved Forecasts Can Degrade Decentralized Supply Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Miyaoka

    () (Decision Sciences Department, College of Business, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California 94132)

  • Warren H. Hausman

    () (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

This research studies the impact of improved forecasts on the members of a two-stage supply chain. The supplier builds capacity based on original forecast information, and the manufacturer places its order after observing improved (but imperfect) demand information. We study three types of wholesale price purchasing arrangements: (1) when the wholesale price is determined to be exogenous to the supply chain; (2) when the supplier sets the wholesale price; and (3) when the manufacturer sets the wholesale price. Although improved demand information reduces the demand uncertainty that the manufacturer faces, the manufacturer is constrained by the supplier's capacity decision. In all three cases, we show that improved information can decrease the supply chain's expected profit, even as the supplier's capacity increases with improved information. Because improved demand information always increases the centralized supply chain's expected profit, we present a contract that coordinates the channel and provides flexibility in dividing systemwide profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Miyaoka & Warren H. Hausman, 2008. "How Improved Forecasts Can Degrade Decentralized Supply Chains," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 547-562, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:10:y:2008:i:3:p:547-562
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian Li & Shilu Tong & Hongtao Zhang, 2014. "Transparency of Information Acquisition in a Supply Chain," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 412-424, July.
    2. Terry A. Taylor & Wenqiang Xiao, 2010. "Does a Manufacturer Benefit from Selling to a Better-Forecasting Retailer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1584-1598, September.
    3. Baojun Jiang & Lin Tian & Yifan Xu & Fuqiang Zhang, 2016. "To Share or Not to Share: Demand Forecast Sharing in a Distribution Channel," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 800-809, September.
    4. Zhao, Xuan & Xing, Wei & Liu, Liming & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Demand information and spot price information: Supply chains trading in spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 837-849.
    5. Liu, Heng & Özer, Özalp, 2010. "Channel incentives in sharing new product demand information and robust contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1341-1349, December.
    6. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2012. "A delayed demand supply chain: Incentives for upstream players," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 478-487.
    7. Liu, Zugang (Leo) & Anderson, Trisha D. & Cruz, Jose M., 2012. "Consumer environmental awareness and competition in two-stage supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 602-613.
    8. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.

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