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Embedding the weather prediction errors (WPE) into the photovoltaic (PV) forecasting method using deep learning

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  • Adela Bâra
  • Simona‐Vasilica Oprea

Abstract

The creation of features makes the difference in improving the photovoltaic forecast (PVF) for on‐grid, hybrid and off‐grid PV systems. The importance of the PVF is tremendous, and it can be essential in optimizing the home appliances to maximize the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) usage or to create performant bids for the electricity market. Several use cases are considered from the connectivity point of view. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a Weather Prediction Error (WPE)‐based method that uses a Stacking Regressor (SR) for various PV systems that coexist in the emerging Energy Communities (EC) landscape. The novelty of the research we conduct consists in proposing several features and determining the coefficients to adjust the PVF based on WPE. The forecast results of four types of PV systems from size and connectivity point of view are investigated. Compared with individual Machine Learning (ML) models, R2 increases with more than 3% with the SR and with more than 6% after applying the adjustment coefficients. Nevertheless, the major improvement is recorded for the off‐grid inverter and for the large industrial PV power plant, demonstrating that the proposed model is suitable for these types of systems. The other metrics improved as well, especially Mean Average Error (MAE) that decreases between 10% and 23%. A significant decrease is in the case of the industrial on‐grid PV, from 130 kW to 123 kW using the SR and to 107 kW after adjustments. This represents around 18% from the initial MAE. The ratio of daily deviations is also improved using the SR. For all the PV systems, the ratio stabilizes in a shorter interval, from daily values between 0.78 and 1.33 obtained with the ML models to values between 0.83 and 1.24 obtained with the SR. After the final adjustments, the interval becomes shorter, having daily values between 0.90 and 1.10.

Suggested Citation

  • Adela Bâra & Simona‐Vasilica Oprea, 2024. "Embedding the weather prediction errors (WPE) into the photovoltaic (PV) forecasting method using deep learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1173-1198, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:43:y:2024:i:5:p:1173-1198
    DOI: 10.1002/for.3064
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