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A model to predict the cost‐effectiveness of disease management programs

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  • Afschin Gandjour

Abstract

High costs and deficits in the care of patients with chronic diseases have triggered numerous programs to improve the quality and efficiency of treatment of chronic diseases. Decision makers need to estimate the impact of a disease management program (DMP) on long‐term costs and cost‐effectiveness in order to decide which programs to introduce. This prediction, however, requires formalizing the relations between a variety of variables. The purpose of this paper is to formalize these relations and develop a model that enhances the quality of predictions of the costs and cost‐effectiveness of a DMP. The model's cost function is able to portray a reduction both of treatment overuse and underuse by improving both physician and patient compliance. The model's applicability is demonstrated by a simulated DMP for patients with hypertension. The application example shows that implementation costs may have a larger financial impact than downstream costs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Afschin Gandjour, 2010. "A model to predict the cost‐effectiveness of disease management programs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 697-715, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:6:p:697-715
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Afschin Gandjour & Karl Wilhelm Lauterbach, 2003. "When Is It Worth Introducing a Quality Improvement Program? A Mathematical Model," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 23(6), pages 518-525, November.
    2. Joel Tsevat & Lee Goldman & Jane R. Soukup & Gervasio A. Lamas & Kathleen F. Connors & Carole C. Chapin & Thomas H. Lee, 1993. "Stability of Time-tradeoff Utilities in Survivors of Myocardial Infarction," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(2), pages 161-165, June.
    3. Afschin Gandjour & Karl Wilhelm Lauterbach, 2005. "How Much Does It Cost to Change the Behavior of Health Professionals? A Mathematical Model and an Application to Academic Detailing," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 25(3), pages 341-347, May.
    4. Gandjour, Afschin & Stock, Stephanie, 2007. "A national hypertension treatment program in Germany and its estimated impact on costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(2-3), pages 257-267, October.
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    1. Afschin Gandjour, 2016. "Prioritizing health services research: an economic perspective," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(4), pages 375-377, May.

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