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Is Pleading Really a Bargain?

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  • David S. Abrams

Abstract

A criminal defendant's decision of whether to accept a plea bargain is one with serious consequences both for his or her immediate and long‐term future. Conventional wisdom suggests that defendants are better served by entering into a plea bargain, to avoid what is known as the “trial penalty.” In this article I present evidence that this notion is likely mistaken. In OLS regressions using data from Cook County state courts, I find that a risk‐neutral defendant seeking to minimize his or her expected sentence would do substantially better by rejecting a plea bargain. I also employ an IV approach to the question and, while the instrument is weak, the results are consistent with the OLS: defendants are better off going to trial.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Abrams, 2011. "Is Pleading Really a Bargain?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(s1), pages 200-221, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:8:y:2011:i:s1:p:200-221
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2011.01234.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William M. Landes, 1974. "An Economic Analysis of the Courts," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 164-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. George L. Priest & Benjamin Klein, 1984. "The Selection of Disputes for Litigation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-56, January.
    3. Lex Borghans & Bart H. H. Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & Huub Meijers, 2009. "Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 649-658, 04-05.
    4. Waldfogel, Joel, 1995. "The Selection Hypothesis and the Relationship between Trial and Plaintiff Victory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 229-260, April.
    5. Lex Borghans & Bart H.H. Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & Huub Meijers, 2009. "Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Ambiguity," Working Papers 200903, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julian V. Roberts & Ben Bradford, 2015. "Sentence Reductions for a Guilty Plea in England and Wales: Exploring New Empirical Trends," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 187-210, June.

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