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Centered Advantage: A Geographic Measure of Partisan Fairness in Redistricting

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  • Jeffrey T. Barton
  • Jon X. Eguia

Abstract

We introduce a measure of partisan advantage in redistricting that takes into account a state's political geography. We define a party's geographic baseline seat‐share as the proportion of the state's inhabitants for which the party would win a district centered around the inhabitant's location of residence. If the geographically ideal district for each voter is the most compact district with this voter at its center, a party's geographic baseline is the share of residents for whom the party wins their ideal district. A party's “Centered Advantage” is then the difference between the seats the party wins, and its geographic baseline number of seats. We compute the Centered Advantage for each legislative and congressional 2024 district map for all 50 states using precinct‐level statewide elections results from 2016 to 2020. We observe that Democrats' geographic baseline increases with district size, and that Democrats are underrepresented in nationwide seat aggregates: the GOP has a Centered Advantage of about twenty‐eight U.S. congressional seats, and over a hundred and fifty state legislative seats.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey T. Barton & Jon X. Eguia, 2025. "Centered Advantage: A Geographic Measure of Partisan Fairness in Redistricting," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 422-437, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:22:y:2025:i:4:p:422-437
    DOI: 10.1111/jels.70001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barton, Jeffrey T., 2022. "Fairness in plurality systems with implications for detecting partisan gerrymandering," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 69-90.
    2. King, Gary & Browning, Robert X, 1987. "Democratic Representation and Partisan Bias in Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1251-1273, December.
    3. Tufte, Edward R., 1973. "The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 540-554, June.
    4. Chen, Jowei & Rodden, Jonathan, 2013. "Unintentional Gerrymandering: Political Geography and Electoral Bias in Legislatures," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 8(3), pages 239-269, June.
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