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The effect of labor strikes on security analysts' forecast superiority and on the association between risk†adjusted stock returns and unexpected earnings

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  • LAWRENCE D. BROWN
  • MARK E. ZMIJEWSKI

Abstract

. This paper empirically examines whether labor strikes affect the forecasting and information content of quarterly earnings numbers. We address two issues regarding financial analyst forecast (FAF) superiority: whether FAF superiority increases when a strike occurs and if so, whether the increase in FAF superiority is sustained immediately after the strike ends. We also examine two issues regarding information content: whether strikes affect the coefficient mapping unexpected earnings into stock prices and whether strikes affect the variance of stock price changes. We suggest that strikes affect both the forecasting and information content of quarterly earnings numbers. Résumé. Cet article examine de façon empirique si les grèves des travailleurs influencent la prévision et le contenu informatif des résultats trimestriels. Nous abordons deux questions relatives à la supériorité des prévisions d'analystes financiers (PAF): à savoir si la supériorité des PAF s'accroît lorsqu'une grève se produit et, dans l'affirmative, si l'accroissement de cette supériorité se maintient immédiatement après la fin de la grève. Nous étudions également deux questions relatives au contenu informatif: à savoir si les grèves influencent le coefficient incorporant l'impact des bénéfices imprévus sur le cours des actions et si les grèves affectent la variance des fluctuations du cours des actions. Les grèves affecteraient donc à la fois la prévision et le contenu informatif des résultats trimestriels.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence D. Brown & Mark E. Zmijewski, 1987. "The effect of labor strikes on security analysts' forecast superiority and on the association between risk†adjusted stock returns and unexpected earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), pages 61-75, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:4:y:1987:i:1:p:61-75
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1987.tb00655.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morse, D, 1981. "Price And Trading Volume Reaction Surrounding Earnings Announcements - A Closer Examination," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 374-383.
    2. Patell, Jm, 1976. "Corporate Forecasts Of Earnings Per Share And Stock-Price Behavior - Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-276.
    3. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    4. Brown, Ld & Richardson, Gd & Schwager, Sj, 1987. "An Information Interpretation Of Financial Analyst Superiority In Forecasting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 49-67.
    5. Beaver, Wh & Clarke, R & Wright, Wf, 1979. "Association Between Unsystematic Security Returns And The Magnitude Of Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 316-340.
    6. Griffin, Pa, 1977. "Time-Series Behavior Of Quarterly Earnings - Preliminary Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 71-83.
    7. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    8. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
    9. Brown, Ld & Rozeff, Ms, 1979. "Univariate Time-Series Models Of Quarterly Accounting Earnings Per Share - Proposed Model," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 179-189.
    10. Collins, Wa & Hopwood, Ws, 1980. "A Multivariate-Analysis Of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated From Quarterly Forecasts Of Financial Analysts And Univariate Time-Series Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 390-406.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shanshan Pan & Michael Lacina & Haeyoung Shin, 2019. "Income Classification Shifting and Financial Analysts’ Forecasts," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-48, June.
    3. Mest, David P. & Plummer, Elizabeth, 1999. "Transitory and persistent earnings components as reflected in analysts' short-term and long-term earnings forecasts: evidence from a nonlinear model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 291-308, July.

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