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Asymptotic behaviour of the finite‐time ruin probability in renewal risk models

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  • Remigijus Leipus
  • Jonas Šiaulys

Abstract

In this paper we study the tail behaviour of the probability of ruin within finite time t, as initial risk reserve x tends to infinity, for the renewal risk model with strongly subexponential claim sizes. The asymptotic formula holds uniformly for t∈[f(x), ∞), where f(x) is an infinitely increasing function, and substantially extends the result of Tang (Stoch. Models 2004; 20:281–297) obtained for the class of claim distributions with consistently varying tails. Two examples illustrate the result. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Remigijus Leipus & Jonas Šiaulys, 2009. "Asymptotic behaviour of the finite‐time ruin probability in renewal risk models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 309-321, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:25:y:2009:i:3:p:309-321
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rob Kaas & Qihe Tang, 2003. "Note on the Tail Behavior of Random Walk Maxima with Heavy Tails and Negative Drift," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 57-61.
    2. Sgibnev, M. S., 1997. "Submultiplicative moments of the supremum of a random walk with negative drift," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 377-383, April.
    3. Leipus, Remigijus & Siaulys, Jonas, 2007. "Asymptotic behaviour of the finite-time ruin probability under subexponential claim sizes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 498-508, May.
    4. Baltrunas, Aleksandras & Leipus, Remigijus & Siaulys, Jonas, 2008. "Precise large deviation results for the total claim amount under subexponential claim sizes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(10), pages 1206-1214, August.
    5. Embrechts, P. & Veraverbeke, N., 1982. "Estimates for the probability of ruin with special emphasis on the possibility of large claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 55-72, January.
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