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Economic Development, Violent Leader Removal, and Democratization

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  • Michael K. Miller

Abstract

This article argues that autocratic regime strength plays a critical mediating role in the link between economic development and democracy. Looking at 167 countries from 1875 to 2004, I find that development strengthens autocratic regimes, as indicated by a reduced likelihood of violent leader removal. Simultaneously, greater development predicts democratization, but only if a violent turnover has occurred in the recent past. Hence, development can cause democratization, but only in distinctive periods of regime vulnerability. Although development’s stabilizing and democratizing forces roughly balance out within autocracies, they reinforce each other within democracies, resolving the puzzle of why economic development has a stronger effect on democratic stability than on democratization. Further, the theory extends to any variable that predicts violent leader removal and democracy following such violence, pointing to broad unexplored patterns of democratic development.

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  • Michael K. Miller, 2012. "Economic Development, Violent Leader Removal, and Democratization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1002-1020, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:56:y:2012:i:4:p:1002-1020
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00595.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Lin Cui & Chungshik Moon, 2020. "What attracts foreign direct investment into autocratic states? Regime time horizon and institutional design," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2762-2784, October.
    3. Mulligan, Casey B. & Tsui, Kevin K., 2015. "Political entry, public policies, and the economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 377-397.
    4. Gerling, Lena, 2017. "Riots and the window of opportunity for coup plotters: Evidence on the link between urban protests and coups d'état," CIW Discussion Papers 2/2017, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    5. Brieger Stefan & Markwardt Gunther, 2020. "The Democracy–Economy-Nexus," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 135-167, August.
    6. Houle, Christian & Kayser, Mark A. & Xiang, Jun, 2016. "Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 687-726, October.
    7. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera‐Crichton & Brittany Tarufelli, 2022. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and political transitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 465-493, July.
    8. Santiago López-Cariboni & Xun Cao, 2019. "When do authoritarian rulers educate: Trade competition and human capital investment in Non-Democracies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 367-405, September.
    9. Christian Houle & Mark A. Kayser, 2019. "The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2421-2437, November.
    10. Christian, Cornelius & Elbourne, Liam, 2018. "Shocks to military support and subsequent assassinations in Ancient Rome," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 79-82.
    11. Gerling, Lena, 2017. "Riots and the Window of Opportunity for Coup Plotters: Evidence on the Link between Urban Protests and Coups d’État," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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