IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/monber/y2025i12p681-691.html

Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Pflegekosten. Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Horvath
  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

  • Philipp Warum

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Leoni

    (University of Applied Sciences Wiener Neustadt)

Abstract

Mithilfe dynamischer Mikrosimulationsmodelle untersucht der Beitrag, wie der demografische Wandel, Bildungstrends und gesundheitliche Entwicklungen den künftigen Pflegebedarf und die öffentlichen Pflegekosten beeinflussen. Für Österreich zeigt sich ein deutlicher Anstieg der Pflegeausgaben, der primär durch die steigende Lebenserwartung getrieben ist, während die Bildungsexpansion dämpfend wirkt. Vergleichende Analysen für Österreich, Spanien und Italien verdeutlichen, dass Unterschiede in den institutionellen Strukturen und Potenzialen der informellen Pflege zu stark divergierenden Versorgungslücken führen. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit präventiver Gesundheitspolitik, des Ausbaus formeller Pflegekapazitäten sowie der Ausarbeitung langfristig tragfähiger Finanzierungsstrategien.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum & Thomas Leoni, 2025. "Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Pflegekosten. Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(12), pages 681-691, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2025:i:12:p:681-691
    Note: With English abstract.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/?p=438842
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2025. "How Do Rising Care Needs Impact the Formal and Informal Care Sectors and Existing Inequalities?. Comparing Austria and Spain," WIFO Working Papers 700, WIFO.
    2. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Viktoria Szenkurök & Philipp Warum, 2025. "Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study," WIFO Working Papers 705, WIFO.
    3. James Banks & Eric French & Jeremy McCauley, 2023. "Long-term Care in England," NBER Working Papers 31826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Agar Brugiavini & Ludovico Carrino & Giacomo Pasini, 2023. "Long-term Care in Italy," NBER Working Papers 31861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Spielauer, Martin & Horvath, Thomas & Fink, Marian & Abio, Gemma & Souto, Guadalupe & Patxot, Ció & Istenič, Tanja, 2023. "The effect of educational expansion and family change on the sustainability of public and private transfers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    6. Philipp Warum & Fabrizio Culotta & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Pauline Pohl & Martin Spielauer, 2025. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Spousal Caregiving and Future Gaps in Long-term Care: Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy," WIFO Working Papers 709, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wifo, 2025. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 12/2025," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(12), December.
    2. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2025. "How Do Rising Care Needs Impact the Formal and Informal Care Sectors and Existing Inequalities?. Comparing Austria and Spain," WIFO Working Papers 700, WIFO.
    3. Mejía-Guevara, Iván & Fuentes, María Estela Rivero, 2024. "Intergenerational paid and unpaid labor production and consumption inequality by gender in Mexico," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Philipp Warum & Fabrizio Culotta & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Pauline Pohl & Martin Spielauer, 2025. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Spousal Caregiving and Future Gaps in Long-term Care: Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy," WIFO Working Papers 709, WIFO.
    5. Julio López Laborda & Carmen Marín González & Jorge Onrubia & Ángel de la Fuente, 2026. "Cuentas generacionales de los miembros de los hogares (Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencia para España, 2022)," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2026-09, FEDEA.
    6. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Viktoria Szenkurök & Philipp Warum, 2025. "Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study," WIFO Working Papers 705, WIFO.
    7. Thomas Horvath & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2025. "Life course heterogeneity and the future labour force – A dynamic microsimulation analysis for Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 23(1), pages 207-230.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2025:i:12:p:681-691. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.