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New times, old beliefs: Projecting the future size of religions in Austria

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  • Anne Goujon
  • Katrin Fliegenschnee
  • Pawel Strzelecki
  • Vegard Skirbekk

Abstract

The relative sizes of secular and religious populations belong to the most important social characteristics of each country. In the wake of religious change, family behaviour, including marriage and childbearing, is likely to be altered. European demographic trends, including those of late childbearing and low fertility are also likely to change when there is a growth of religious groups where conversion/secularisation rates are low and childbearing levels are high. We project the membership size of the various religious groupings until 2051 for Austria, a country where the religion question is included in the census, allowing detailed and accurate projections to be made. We consider relative fertility rates, religion-specific emigration and immigration, conversion rates and intergenerational transmission of religious affiliation. Our estimates suggest that the Catholic proportion will decrease from 75% in 2001 to less than 50% in 2051. The Muslim population, which grew from 1% in 1981 to 4% in 2001, will represent 14% to 18% of the Austrian population by 2051, and could represent up to 32% of those below 15 years of age. The Protestants’ population share will be stable at around 4%, while up to 34% of the population will be without religion.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Goujon & Katrin Fliegenschnee & Pawel Strzelecki & Vegard Skirbekk, 2007. "New times, old beliefs: Projecting the future size of religions in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 237-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:5:y:2007:i:1:p:237-270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
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    1. García-Muñoz, Teresa & Neuman, Shoshana, 2012. "Is Religiosity of Immigrants a Bridge or a Buffer in the Process of Integration? A Comparative Study of Europe and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 6384, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Michaela Potančoková & Sandra Jurasszovich & Anne Goujon, 2018. "Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 905-924, November.
    3. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    4. Alain Bélanger & Samuel Vézina & Jennifer Van Hook & Patrick Sabourin & Guillaume Marois, 2019. "A framework for the prospective analysis of ethno-cultural super-diversity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(11), pages 293-330.
    5. Anne Goujon & Claudia Reiter, 2020. "The future of the Protestant Church: Estimates for Austria and for the Provinces of Burgenland, Carinthia and Vienna," VID Working Papers 2002, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    6. David Coleman, 2010. "Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 441-486, September.
    7. Gudrun Biffl, 2006. "Teilstudie 6: Bevölkerungsentwicklung und Migration," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27445, July.

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